To orbit the earth 250 miles 16 times a day, space stations are one of the most impressive achievements of mankind. The International Space Station (ISS) is a partnership between NASA and the Roscosmos of Russia, with contributions from the US side of Canada, Japan, Europe and other countries. However, its future is far from clear and depends on decisions that will be made this year.
About 75 percent of ISS costs are borne by the US at an annual cost of $ 3 to 4 billion. Russia introduced the ISS’s first components in 1998, and by 2010 the ISS was fully operational. The plan was that ISS would last 15 to 20 years, and then it would be replaced. That was not to be.
The ISS has cost more than $ 150 billion, costing five times the combined budgets of NASA and Roscosmos. It would be a huge undertaking to replace it, probably funding Earth observation, human visits to the Moon or Mars or the exploration of deep space. The Trump administration’s “Artemis” response was to transfer space stations orbiting the Earth from the government to the private sector and instead focus government spending on a lunar runway and a human lunar landing. Since several countries are already agreeing to invest in America’s lunar space station, it’s hard to see how these countries would also invest in a $ 100 billion replacement ISS. So, unless the Artemis program is delayed, the financial burden of a new ISS will fall on the US
Extending the life of ISS has been facilitated by the design of the component, which facilitates the removal of worn parts, such as solar panels. Consequently, NASA, Roscosmos and the international partners have agreed to make it work until 2028 (8 to 10 years longer than its lifetime) and possibly until 2030.
The ISS is already twenty and we must be prepared for surprises at this age: when a slow air leak was discovered, an astronaut initially plugged it with his finger and taped it. This is not the only time they are holding air at the station with tape, and it is unlikely that this will be the last breakdown before 2030, to say nothing of the danger of collisions with debris. If there is to be a comparable replacement for the ISS by 2030, the initial work should start by 2021. If work on a replacement does not start by 2021, the chances of a comparable station being in service by 2028/30 will decrease. But there is more.
The ISS is on the verge of getting a huge boost: this year it is planned to film parts of two major films there. Universal Studios and NASA have announced that a $ 200 million Tom Cruise thriller will be partially filmed in the ISS, and Russian Channel One and Roscosmos have announced that they will be filming one as well. Millions could soon be stunned by glamorized scenes aboard the ISS.
Although Roscosmos agreed to continue the ISS until 2028/30, it indicated that if the US closed the ISS segments of America, Russia would separate the segments from Russia and use it as a stand-alone or cooperating Russian space station. . No one in Russia has forgotten that the first space stations were Russian or that the Mir space station operated 14 years before the ISS. The possibility of a Russian space station remains together.
Strong opposition from US defense interests prevented space cooperation between the US and China, leading to a 2011 law effectively banning it. Not surprisingly, China pursued a space program without involvement with the ISS. These include satellites, lunar and planetary missions and from 2011 onwards China’s own space stations, Tiangong 1 and 2. In 2021, China will start building Tiangong 3, a multimodule station that will start to look like the ISS. It should be operational by 2022, include European and other astronauts, and remain operational well after the ISS.
Assuming the US does not build an ISS replacement, America’s most important strategy will remain to replace the ISS with private space stations. Several U.S. companies have already begun work, although most use the ISS as a foundation.
The leading US company to build its own station is privately owned Axiom Space, which is subcontracted to companies such as Space X and module construction to Thales Alenia Corp. “Axiom Station” will be a space station with 3 modules, which was initially linked to the ISS separate in the late 2020s. Axiom’s plan is to use one module for operations, another for experiments / manufacturing and the third as a luxury resort. Last year, NASA allocated $ 140 million to Axiom to help build the first module. Axiom is hosting Universal Studios and Tom Cruise this year, sending 20 space tourists, who paid $ 55 million each, for a week aboard the ISS in 2022.
Other companies are further behind, including Sierra Nevada Corp., Nano Racks and Bigelow.
Among the most important recent developments in US space policy was the formation of the US Space Force (USSF). One of its main objectives is to protect U.S. space assets, and it is hard to imagine that the USSF leadership would not consider a military space station. While NASA has long collaborated with the military and although the U.S. military is one of the largest owners of satellites, no manned U.S. military space station has been proposed since the 1960s.
Last year, the Defense Innovation Unit awarded a contract to Sierra Nevada to build an unmanned Orbital Outpost that could house a military crew. The company would use its planned truck as a platform from which to build a military outpost. The initial flight of the truck to the ISS, connected to the Sierra Nevada spacecraft, is scheduled for 2021. This will, of course, lay the groundwork for the conversion of the vehicle to a military space station.
This year, construction begins on a new Chinese space station and a US business station; the Pentagon will pursue its first space station, and – perhaps – we will know more about any future Russian space station. More importantly, the Biden government will decide whether there will be a replacement for the ISS, especially since, given the long delivery times, there is no decision in 2021.
Roger Cochetti provides consulting and advisory services in Washington, DC He was a senior executive officer at Communications Satellite Corporation (COMSAT) from 1981 to 1994. He was also the leader of Internet policy for IBM from 1994 to 2000 and later served as senior vice president. and chief policy officer. for VeriSign and Group Policy Director for CompTIA. He served on the State Department Advisory Committee on International Communications and Information during the Bush and Obama administration, and has testified several times on Internet policy issues and served on advisory committees at the FTC and various UN agencies. He is the author of the Mobile Satellite Communications Handbook.