With the Golden Globes weighing in today with their picks (and believe me, there were a few ‘picks’), the Screen Actors Guild Awards are next on the dossier and have a stronger connection to the Oscars.
A group of 2,500 randomly selected SAG-AFTRA members vote for the coveted awards, which often result in an eclectic group of nominees. In recent years, shocking inclusions like Sarah Silverman (“I Smile Back”), Emily Blunt (“The Girl on the Train”) and Peter Dinklage (“The Station Agent”) have shaken things up. They are also known for their big omissions, such as Clive Owen and Natalie Portman in ‘Closer’, who both won Golden Globe Awards for their performances in 2005.
Can ‘Man’ give the lead as with the Golden Globes? Will “The Trial of the Chicago 7” claim to be the most likely Oscar contender for Netflix? Can “Da 5 Bloods” and “One Night in Miami” bounce back after the HFPA gave it the shaft? Can “Nomadland” put the Academy Awards to bed with an impressive performance, including the SAG ensemble category? All of these questions can be left unanswered, as Oscar voting does not open until March 5th.
Below are the final predictions for the SAG Awards.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A CAST ENSEMBLE
- ‘Minari”(A24)
CAST: Steven Yeun, Yeri Han, Yuh-Jung Youn, Alan S. Kim, Will Patton - ‘Nomadland”(Searchlight Photos)
CAST: Frances McDormand, David Strathairn, Swankie, Linda May, Bob Wells - ‘A night in Miami‘(Amazon Studios)
CAST: Kingsley Ben-Adir, Eli Goree, Aldis Hodge, Leslie Odom Jr. - ‘Sound of Metal”(Amazon Studios)
CAST: Riz Ahmed, Olivia Cooke, Paul Raci, Mathieu Amalric, Lauren Ridloff - ‘The Chicago 7 Trial”(Netflix)
CAST: Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Sacha Baron Cohen, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Michael Keaton, Frank Langella, John Carroll Lynch, Eddie Redmayne, Mark Rylance, Alex Sharp, Jeremy Strong
ALTERNATE: “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix)
The equivalent of Oscars’ best picture category, this category is one of the most important items needed on the way to the Academy Awards. There are, of course, a few exceptions such as ‘Braveheart’, ‘The Shape of Water’ and ‘Green Book’ which have won without it. It’s also a great way for movies like ‘Da 5 Bloods’, ‘Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom’ and ‘One Night in Miami’ to bounce back. The inclusion of ‘Nomadland’ would strengthen his strength and position as the frontrunner in the race like previous films such as ‘Slumdog Millionaire’, another film with a ‘lesser known’ cast. Amazon’s “Sound of Metal” can also be a symbol of power, like other surprise entries in the past, “Dallas Buyers Club” and “Bohemian Rhapsody”, but it’s always hard to get “that” candidate out so early in the game to choose.
There are also some films with great cast that can make the series, such as entries from the past such as “Bobby” and “August: Osage County.” Can “The Prom” show his taste in music with an unexpected recognition? “Promising Young Woman” has many film / TV actors who can stimulate their imagination, which can further accelerate the best image / director status. I also wonder if the voting committee has the chops to vote for Kelly Reichardt’s “First Cow,” which features unforeseen entries like “Beasts of No Nation?” Follow. Hopefully they have the chops for ‘Minari’ because the HFPA certainly did not do it today.
Thanks to SONY PICTURES CLASSICS / AMAZON STUDIOS / NETFLIX / A24
BEST PERFORMANCE by a male actor in a leading role
- Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios)
ROLE: Ruben - Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix)
ROLE: Levee - Anthony Hopkins, “The Father” (Sony Pictures Classics)
ROL: Anthony - Delroy Lindo, “From 5 Bloods” (Netflix)
ROL: Paul - Steven Yeun, “Minari” (A24)
ROL: Jacob
ALTERNATE: Tahar Rahim, “The Mauritanian” (STXfilms)
After a big miss at the Globes, this is the place for Delroy Lindo (“Da 5 Bloods”) and Steven Yeun (“Minari”) to confirm their positions in the category of best actors. Gary Oldman (‘Mank’) is someone who respects actors a lot and can perform in the manner of Christian Bale (‘Ford v. Ferrari’). Riz Ahmed (“Sound of Metal”), Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) and Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”) feel safe for them. While Jodie Foster catches up with the best supporting actor, it could be a package with Tahar Rahim (‘The Mauritanian’). If it appears in this space, beware, because BAFTA is a group that benefits him incredibly, and he can lock things up for himself.
BEST Achievements by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
- Second day, “The United States vs. Billie Holiday ”(Hulu)
ROL: Billie Holiday - Nicole Beharie, “Miss Juneteenth” (Vertical Entertainment)
ROLE: Turquoise Jones - Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix)
ROL: Ma Rainey - Frances McDormand, “Nomadland” (searchlight photos)
ROL: Fern - Carey Mulligan, “Promising young woman” (focus functions)
ROLE: Cassandra “Cassie” Thomas
ALTERNATE: Vanessa Kirby, “Pieces of a Woman” (Netflix)
Interestingly, the best actress category at the SAG Awards has not matched Oscar perfectly since 2009, when Sandra Bullock emerged as the winner for ‘The Blind Side’. Since then, there have been many “one-off” and shocking snubs. Look at Hilary Swank (“Conviction”), Helen Mirren (“Hitchcock” and “Woman in Gold”) and Sarah Silverman (“I Smile Back”) for the inclusions that have made many experts scratch their heads. With the competitive nature of the best actress, we can expect a surprise miss or two, and Vanessa Kirby (‘Pieces of a Woman’) is perhaps one of those who sits on the outside of SAG and returns for the Oscars. Nicole Beharie (‘Miss Juneteenth’) won the Gotham Award for Best Actress on the first day of the SAG poll and may find a place among them. Andra Day’s performances impressed enough that it’s on the bubble for an entry. This could confirm her status in the queue. Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”) and Carey Mulligan (“Promising Young Woman”) feel safe with Viola Davis feeling semi-safe for spots, but honestly, who knows?
BEST performance by a male actor in a supporting role
- Sacha Baron Cohen, “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix)
ROLE: Abbie Hoffman - Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros.)
ROLE: Fred Hampton - Leslie Odom Jr., “One Night in Miami” (Amazon Studios)
ROLE: Sam Cooke - Paul Raci, “Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios)
ROL: Joe - Mark Rylance, “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix)
ROLE: William Kunstler
ALTERNATE: Brian Dennehy, “Driveways” (FilmRise)
The SAG Awards have not been 100% consistent with the Oscars since 2014 when JK Simmons ran away with the season for ‘Whiplash’. This year, I do not expect it to be fully consistent again, so we should expect some variation. I think Mark Rylance, along with co-star Javier Bardem for ‘No Country for Old Men’ in 2007, can reflect on ‘No Country for Old Men’ for ‘The Trial of the Chicago 7’. In other SAG behaviors, the big guild can recognize those we have left over the past year (ie James Garner for “The Notebook” and James Gandolfini for “Enough Said”), therefore as the late Brian Dennehy as an alternative choice. can find her way to the essay for his performance in “Driveways.”
There are also former nominees like Steve Carell for ‘Battle of the Sexes’ who made things shake for the candidates, and I would not count Colman Domingo’s work in ‘Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom’ for a play about his fellow star Glynn not make Turman, but at this point they can split voices with each other.
BEST performance by a female actor in a supporting role
- Maria Bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” (Amazon Studios)
ROL: Tutar Sagdiyev - Jodie Foster, “The Mauritanian” (STXfilms)
ROLE: Nancy Hollander - Amanda Seyfried, “Mank” (Netflix)
ROL: Marion Davies - Yuh-Jung Youn, “Minari” (A24)
ROL: Soonja - Helena Zengel, “News of the World” (Universal Pictures)
ROLE: Johanna Leonberger
ALTERNATE: Olivia Colman, “The Father” (Sony Pictures Classics)
The guild corresponds to the Academy in 2016 when Viola Davis won for her work in ‘Fences’, but since then they have shown some wildcard choices, as not, like Emily Blunt in ‘A Quiet Place’, Margot Robbie in “Mary Queen of Scots” and Nicole Kidman in “Bombshell.” Despite the quality of their works, they fall into a period of consideration that does not quite work out. Who fits this bill this year?
Olivia Cooke’s work in “Sound of Metal” is much loved, and if you predict it’s going to be a great day, she’s going to have it easy. Independent Spirit nominee Valerie Mahaffey’s turn in “French Exit” will surely make heads turn. Yet I would not count her in if you did not also foresee Michelle Pfeiffer coming in, and it seems that the road is currently blocked for her. Candice Bergen is a legend of the television and film world, so “Let Them All Talk” may be in the conversation. With their affinity for young actors, Helena Zengel can continue her rise to “News of the World,” and Jodie Foster is a previous winner of this category for “Nell,” so she might get some strength.
The predicted Olivia Colman miss for ‘The Father’ is a story that fits the awards season; however, they could not reward her the year she won the Oscar for ‘The Favorite’, and the group likes to cross out correctly (ie Judi Dench for ‘Chocolat’ after ‘Shakespeare in Love’). If Ellen misses Burstyn here, just after she missed the Globes, her path becomes narrower and she will need Critics Choice and BAFTA to keep her alive. The “WTF nominations”, which I call the performances that end up without any forerunner help for Oscar, such as Marina de Tavira (“Roma”) and Marcia Gay Harden (“Pollock”), are few.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A STUNT ENSEMBLE
- “The Midnight Sky” (Netflix)
- “Mulan” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- “News of the World” (Universal Pictures)
- “Tenet” (Warner Bros.)
- “Wonder Woman 1984” (Warner Bros.)
ALTERNATE: “The Old Guard” (Netflix)
The choice for stunts is always unpredictable, as it can usually include movies you did not expect, such as ‘The Ballad of Buster Scruggs’ and ‘Nocturnal Animals’. Horses seem like something that could attract voters, declaring the inclusion of “Mulan” and “News of the World,” and we have to assume that scaling up and throughout buildings is impressive enough to keep ‘Tenet’ in the mix. The previous “Wonder Woman” won this category, and the sequel to “WW84” should be attractive. To flip a coin for ‘The Midnight Sky’ and ‘The Old Guard’, but what do I know, it’s probably ‘Hillbilly Elegy’, and on is the new down.