With the upcoming 2021 Players’ Championship, the most important question everyone is asking is the same in the golf world: who do you choose to win at TPC Sawgrass? With a huge, star-studded field – and with just one month to go until the Masters – the first major event of 2021 would be an epic ride from Thursday’s first round.
The storylines abound this week, and the last player to win on this track – Rory McIlroy in 2019 – leads them. McIlroy has not won since the fall of 2019, and in recent weeks he has lamented a game that is not quite sharp enough. He was at the center of the 2019 Players (for his victory) and the 2020 version (for his leadership by concluding COVID-19). Will he be back this year?
McIlroy joins a suddenly rising Jordan Spieth (three top-five in four games) and last week’s champion (and winner of three of his last 15 appearances), Bryson DeChambeau. We can keep hours on the rest of the storylines, but these are three that appear on deck with The Players.
What’s going to happen at TPC Sawgrass this week? Let’s take a look at a full set of predictions and selections from our CBS Sports experts, along with a full chance at 2021 Players Championship chance. Every chance via William Hill Sportsbook.
2021 Player Championship expert selections, predictions
Kyle Porter, Golf Writer
Winner – Patrick Cantlay (22-1): If you look at the beats he deserved, he was the best player in the world in 2021. Like his Presidential Cup partner Xander Schauffele, Cantlay has no holes in the game. He opened with 67 last year before the whole case was canceled. I have been ready for about six weeks now to select him for this event.
Sleeper – Corey Conners (80-1): What is not dear here? He was better than green this year than Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau, and he almost had a miss career at Bay Hill last week. You can also talk me into Sergio Garcia at 70-1 or Joaquin Niemann at 50-1, but I like Conners more on this number.
Top 10 final – Jon Rahm (16-1 to win): There is no such thing as a top 10 slot at TPC Sawgrass, but Rahm gets the top 10s just as often as anyone in the world (58 in 114 officials start worldwide, 51%). He’s seventh in strokes this year, and he’s a tea after green and gets a little under the radar (for him).
Star who will definitely not win – Rory McIlroy: No one has ever successfully defended here, and every winner since 2004 (except Tiger Woods in 2013) was a first champion. Combine that with his weird one-time bad round, and I don’t think the game is quite sharp enough for him to pick up a second consecutive player.
Top 5 in order: Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm, Hideki Matsuyama
Surprise forecast: Jordan Spieth will miss the cut. This would not normally be a surprising prediction, but Spieth has finished in the top five in three of his last four events and is currently one of the best iron players in the world. However, he does not normally play well at TPC Sawgrass – not even when he has played the best golf of his life – and he has missed four of his last five tracks at The Players.
Lowest round: 64 (-8)
Win count: 271 (-17)
Winner’s Sunday Score: 69 (-3)
Jacob Hallex, manufacturer
Wenner – Viktor Hovland (25-1): Winners at The Players tend to be random and do not fit a specific shape. It’s a tough tournament to predict, so let’s get a little long with the choice to win. Why not Hovland? The Norwegian has finished in the top-5 in the fourth of the last six times at the PGA Tour. That includes a win in the Mayakoba Classic just before the holidays. The beat against Hovland is his cap. Aside from the horrible foursome in the second round of WGC Workday, his short game was not so bad yet. I take the 23-year-old ball attack to reach his third PGA Tour tournament.
Sleeper – Cameron Smith (50-1): He has so far picked up a trio of the top five finishes for the season. Smith broke out in my eyes with a T2 finish at the rescheduled Masters in November. He was eligible for the WGC Workday Championship last month before a disastrous 77 killed any hope of winning on Saturday. Prior to the crash at Concession, he scored the T4 on the Genesis invitation, and he won ten strokes for green for the week. Not too bad. If the young Aussie avoids a large number, I believe he will finish near the top of the standings.
Top 10 slot – Tony Finau (25-1 to win): One of these days, Finau wins his second PGA Tour tournament. It probably won’t be this week. But lately, if he writes it down, he’s likely to end up in the top 10, as he’s done in five of his last seven worldwide principles. Let’s avoid all the disappointment of another ‘near but no cigar’ by winning a top 10 ticket this week.
Star that will definitely not win – Rory McIlroy: It almost feels like cheating. Rory may have gotten lost in the woods while helping with the search for Jordan Spieth. Something that many people missed last week was that for the first time since 2018, McIlroy fell outside the top 10 on the Official World Golf Rankings. Rory is looking for a spark. After Sunday’s round at the API, he remarked, “I need something and it looks like I just don’t have it.” He may be the defending champion, but I’m not buying a McIlroy share this week.
Top 5 in order: Viktor Hovland, Tony Finau, Tyrrell Hatton, Dustin Johnson, Will Zalatoris
Surprise prediction – Jordan Spieth misses the track: I bet Spieth he’s going to miss the cut last week, and I’m going to do the same again this week. What is the definition of insanity? Jordan “is back” … but I will still fade him on a course where he has not yet had a good history. A T4 in 2014, she is single in the top 40 at this event. He did not fare well here during the peak years, and he seemed lost in the depths. Soothe expectations and don’t be surprised if Spieth misses the track for the fifth time in his career at The Players
Lowest round: 65 (-7)
Win count: 273 (-15)
Winner’s Sunday Score: 69 (-3)
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Adam Silverstein, Deputy Managing Editor
Wenner – Justin Thomas (20-1): Aside from a missed track at the Genesis invitation two weeks ago, Thomas has been on the roll since the start of the season in September. He achieved no less than 15th place at each event. This is the time of year when Thomas teases you for believing that he is a good choice to win the Masters with a victory at an important event in the run-up. Looking for its 14th PGA Tour tournament and the first since last August, there is good value here on JT
Sleeper – Billy Horschel (70-1): Horschel is one of the richest golfers on the PGA Tour and finds success in lumps. And although he fell out of favor this past week, he missed the cut at Bay Hill after scoring T2 at the WGC Workday Championships, Horschel has had four top-10 finishes since early December. He likes to be tested through difficult courses, and since he lives about 15 minutes from TPC Sawgrass, he is very familiar with this course. Great opportunity for a wavy golfer with some home advantage.
Top 10 final – Tony Finau (25-1 to win): Look, we all know at this point the deal with Finau. He has five top-five finishes in his last seven events. He might win this thing, but probably not. But if I post a man’s final status to finish in the top 10, there is currently no better choice.
Star who will definitely not win – Rory McIlroy: I hate to make this category a cattle, but he is the obvious choice because of his declining game. McIlroy, who declares that he must find himself, is a clear indication that something is not working physically, mentally or both. Unlike my compatriots, I’m giving you a bonus here if you want to change a pace: Hideki Matsuyama.
Top 5 in order: Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, Billy Horschel
Surprise Prediction – Rickie Fowler Will Be In twis: It may only be for a round or for a majority of a day, but Fowler has been at stake so late that I think he’s going to find enough external motivation to try it at least once these four rounds. Fowler is 125-1 to win the Players, so do not direct anything at him, but it is a course he is known to play. Just when you calculate Fowler, he might surprise you a little.
Lowest round: 64 (-8)
Win count: 272 (-16)
Winner’s Sunday Score: 69 (-3)
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