In the 2021 NFL draft, there’s the top-five quarterback consensus, and then there’s a big decline.
This is what many draft analysts believe, and it seems very clear that the only callers likely to name in the first round are Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Trey Lance and Mac Jones.
Although the outlook for the top quarter appears to be in stone, this does not mean that the concept in 2021 does not have interesting players in the position outside the consensus top five. Several prospects got Day 2 discussions in the run-up to the draft, and a handful of quarterbacks offer enough aids to justify the appearance of the midfield.
The Bears find themselves in a difficult position to beat one of the top eighth men at no. 20 to land, and if they hinder a deal, they will probably have to wait until one of the remaining rounds to pick a quarter, if they take one at all. Although setting up quarterbacks on Day 2 can be a success, teams have managed to be successful as Russell Wilson, Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo were all selected in Round 2 or 3. It’s hard to get a long starter there, but it is not impossible.
Here are four prospects in the next quarterback level that the Bears could consider in the 2021 NFL draft.
Kyle Trask, Florida
Before the final month of the 2020 season, Kyle Trask is considered a first-round pick in the first round. It is possible that he will only leave the board on Day 3.
Three straight losses to end his collegiate career stand out like a sore thumb, but Trask’s game before the end of last year should not be ignored. In the first nine games of 2020, he had 38 berths for just 3 interceptions. He has a prototypical frame of 6 feet-5 and 236 pounds, and has a good amount and great height to see the field.
Trask throws the ball with a good sense of anticipation and is generally able to deliver accurate balls. He displays a great deal of toughness in the pocket and is willing to strike a blow without panicking. Over the course of his career, he has done a better job of identifying the drop-off options and looking beyond his first reading to find the open man.
The hang-up to Trask is not only its overwhelming 2020 finish, but also a lack of first-class upside. His arm is by no means bad, but he does not have a cannon that other top backs in this class have. He is also an athlete who is below average, and his 5.08 40-step on his Pro Day corresponds to a lack of first athletics on track.
For his somewhat limited ceiling, Trask is by far not a bad quarterback, as his 2020 season indicates, and a general sense of reactionary exploration could drop him in Round 4 or 5. If the Bears are willing to wait to take on a quarterback, then Trask can deliver a better return on investment than many expect of him.
Davis Mills, Stanford
Probably the biggest draft boards after the season in the quarterback position, Davis Mills is from virtually unknown to perhaps the 2021 most enigmatic prospect at the position.
Mills’ arm talent is among the more impressive in this year’s class. His throws provide good velocity and a tight spiral, which enables him to fit the ball in tight windows and cover the needle effectively against the zone. He is an accurate quarterback who delivers his throws with a natural sense of timing. He has a compact throwing motion and a fairly quick release, which should translate well into a faster NFL style of defense.
Mills is a five-star recruiter who comes from high school and does an excellent job of expecting his receivers to open up and lead them to a place that is just out of reach for opposing defenders. Plus, at 6 feet-4 and 217 pounds, he offers a good size for the quarterback position. He looked impressive in 2020, setting 4-1 and setting Stanford’s singles record with 504 passing yards against Washington State. He thrived by airing the ball vertically and was able to make many NFL caliber throws on tape with his arm strength and natural anticipation.
With just 11 starting his name at Stanford, Mills has a very small sample size to go from. He has 18 touchdowns to 8 interceptions in the range, and while the colleagues’ production is by far not the best indication of the NFL’s success, it’s a quarter. On the band, he does not show star athletics and he is quite limited in terms of double threat. He does not have much experience with reading fieldwork, and his footwork sometimes falls apart: his inability to sometimes lower his feet can see him throwing himself unnecessarily over his body.
Although Mills is a big mystery, the flashes he displayed on tape have seen him shoot up the boards over the past month. The Bears may already be considering him in the second round with how much momentum is behind him.
Kellen Mond, Texas A&M
Kellen Mond has been a reliable constant for Texas A&M during his collegiate career, and although he has been underestimated in concept circles most of the time, he seems to get a lot of recognition for the concept.
Mouth has a natural arm strength and is able to unleash a beautiful deep ball with an impressive speed and distance. He has a throwing motion that is quick, compact and easy on the eyes. He has shown the ability to open up his receivers and lay down with a ready timing, and if he gets his feet right, there is little in this class that can deliver as beautifully as he can.
The 6-foot-3, 211-pounder is also a very good athlete for the quarterback position, as evidenced by his 4.62 40-yard point. Mouth shows very good agility in the pocket and can miss defenders as a runner in the open field. With 9,661 yards and 71 passing experiences to his name – coupled with 1,609 running yards and 22 touchdowns on the ground – he has an impressive resume and more experience than most collegiate fullbacks who typically enter the NFL draft.
Although Mond has made improvements in 2020, the question is whether those improvements are sufficient to justify long-term optimism in the NFL. He still struggles with footwork and sometimes follows his hips in his throwing motion. He showed flashes that he could scan the field, but there is not much tape of him performing full field readings, which can lead to moments of indecision and forced casting. As Lance Zierlein reported, Mond completed only 35 percent of the interim throws outside the hashmarks and 26 percent of the deep routes to the outside, and part of the reason for the discrepancy is a lack of determination and inconsistent footwork.
It is unlikely that Mond will see much playing time in his rookie year, but he has some tools that could justify development prospects in Round 3 or 4. If the Bears like what they saw on the band, at the Senior Bowl and at his Pro Day – of which the latter seen them sending key personnel to watch him – he could be an option to succeed Andy Dalton.
Jamie Newman, Wake Forest
Without a 2020 season to go from and a profile with both interesting instruments and questionable qualities, Jamie Newman appears to be a forward-looking midfielder.
Having chosen the summer of 2020 as a possible first round, it is no surprise that Newman has a high ceiling. He has one of the strongest arms in the class and is able to deliver a ball with a zipper throughout. His raw arm talent puts him upside down as a deep-ball thrower, and the touch he put behind him seems like part of a potential starting quarterback in the NFL.
Newman has a thick and well-built frame that measures 6 to 3 and 234 pounds, which he uses incredibly well as a runner: he keeps his center of gravity low and is not afraid to lower his shoulder. He is also a very good athlete with impressive breakaway speed and fantastic lateral agility as a ball carrier that would make him a dangerous threat to reading options on the next level.
Although the decision itself no longer affects Newman’s draft inventory, it is the general lack of bond around him. He has only one season as a full-time predecessor to his name, and the only band in the last twelve months he has had is the Senior Bowl, in which he has usually seemed fickle in his accuracy and pocket presence. He tends to look down on his goal too often, and his one-read mentality can see him throwing forcibly and making questionable decisions with the ball. He is athletic, but Newman does not always have the pocket awareness needed to defend around to avoid pressure. His sense of anticipation is also inconsistent. His 24-year-old in his rookie year also makes him an older quarterback prospect.
Newman is a big question mark due to a lack of 2020 band and little refinement in his game. Because of these concerns, he may fall into the 5th or 6th phase, but his arm talent, athletic ability and his thick framework give him tools that NFL coaching staff can work with. If he ends up in the right place, he could be a stealer.
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