You have no doubt heard of Murphy’s law. But what about Yhprum’s law? This is exactly the opposite of Murphy’s law (the name is spelled ‘Murphy’ backwards). According to the law of Yhprum, everything that can go right will go right. Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) appears to be experiencing the effects of Yhprum’s law with the COVID-19 vaccine with which it was developed and marketed BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX).
Pfizer and BioNTech have so far delivered nothing but good news for their COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty (BNT162b2). Now there are two new positive developments that make the prospects of Pfizer even better.
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More good news
Earlier this month, two different teams of Israeli researchers found that Comirnaty appeared to reduce the spread of coronavirus infection causing COVID-19. Last week, Israeli researchers reported more good news about Pfizer and BioNTech’s vaccine.
The new study found that individuals receiving the first dose of Comirnaty had a 75% decrease in total infections. Similarly, Canadian researchers reported last week that their analysis of Pfizer’s data indicates an efficiency of 92.6% after the first dose of COVID-19 vaccine. An earlier analysis determined a much lower efficacy of 52.4% after the first dose.
Pfizer and BioNTech last week announced a positive development of their own. The two companies have submitted new data to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) showing that Comirnaty can be stored for two weeks at temperatures between minus 13 degrees Fahrenheit and 5 degrees Fahrenheit. Previously, the vaccine required ultra-cold storage at temperatures between minus 112 degrees Fahrenheit and minus 76 degrees Fahrenheit.
Potential impact
What does all this mean for Pfizer? Let’s start with the less stringent storage requirement. Assuming the FDA changes the Emergency Use Label (EUA) for Comirnaty, it should make it easier for non-ultra-cold storage equipment facilities to administer Pfizer’s and BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine.
This is unlikely to have an immediate impact on Pfizer. Anything the company can do to alleviate heavy storage requirements improves the chances that governments will order more doses of Comirnaty in the future. Pfizer has hinted at the prospects for more good news in the future on this front. The company stated that it and BioNTech “expect the shelf life and / or expiration date to be extended” as more data becomes available.
The reports of higher efficacy after the first dose of Comirnaty have not yet been confirmed. However, it may also increase the likelihood that Pfizer will be able to receive more orders for the vaccine in future.
Why don’t investors celebrate?
Despite Pfizer’s continued good news for its COVID vaccine, the major pharmaceutical year so far is almost 7% lower. Why don’t investors celebrate?
One possible reason is that it is still early. More information is needed on the efficacy of Comirnaty after one dose. The FDA has not yet agreed to change the label for the vaccine to meet the updated storage requirements.
Probably the bigger factor, however, is that investors are not convinced that any of these developments will be able to move Pfizer that much. This is likely to be a fair assessment at this stage, although recent announcements should nevertheless boost Pfizer’s prospects for the vaccine.
However, it should be reasonably well thought out that investors should celebrate Pfizer’s overall vaccination success more than they were. The company plans to raise more than $ 15 billion from Comirnaty this year and will split its profits with BioNTech by 50-50. Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine will be a major growth driver for the company in 2021 – and probably for years to come.