The largest earthquake, a magnitude 5.6 on the Richter scale, occurred on the morning of 24 February. It was the loudest in a swarm still rattling residents in the nearby capital Reykjavík and the municipalities around it, where two-thirds of the Icelandic population lives. Two major earthquakes – more than 5.0 – also struck on 27 February and 1 March.
The quake has caused little damage so far, although Iceland’s road and coastal administration has reported small cracks in roads in the area and rock falls on steep slopes near the epicenter of the swarm.
In the fishing village of Grindavík, the residents had a front seat for the quake. “I have never experienced anything like this,” says Páll Valur Björnsson, who teaches at the local Fisheries College and sits as a deputy member of parliament.
“We’m used to it; it started one year ago. But it’s a lot more now – very upsetting. I’m not scared, but it’s uncomfortable. I woke up twice last night because of [tremors]. There was a very large one when I went to sleep, and I woke up with one. It’s hard, but you have to learn to live with it, ‘he said.
Only this time there seems to be no end to the rumble under the ground.
Þorvaldur Þórðarson, a professor of volcanology at the University of Iceland, said that concerns about the recent activity were understandable. “Of course it worries people. For this region, it’s actually quite unusual, not because of the earthquakes or their intensity, but for their duration. It’s been going on for more than a week now.”
“We are currently struggling with the ‘why’. Why is this happening? It is very likely that our magma in the [Earth’s] crust there. It has definitely moved closer to the surface, but we’re trying to find out if it’s moving even closer to it, “he said.
Elísabet Pálmadóttir, a specialist in natural hazards at the Icelandic Meteorological Office, told CNN that the authorities use surveillance equipment in the area, from GPS and earthquake monitors to webcams and gas detectors.
She also cannot remember having experienced so many earthquakes over such a long period of time. She warns that a more powerful event could be worrying, and estimates that the area could experience an earthquake of 6 or more.
“In this particular area, where we have seen activity over the past week, we can experience an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.0. But we can see a 6.5 east of the area, east of Lake Kleifarvatn. , have, “she says.
According to the latest modeling by the University of Iceland’s Volcanology and Natural Hazards Group, which released maps on Wednesday, it appears that no towns were at risk due to lava flows in the event of a volcanic eruption.
“Based on the current model, there is no major city that suffers damage,” volcanologist Ármann Höskuldsson told CNN, adding that Keflavík International Airport – one of the most direct connections between Iceland and the rest of the world – would also be spared.
However, the highway connecting the airport to the capital, Reykjavík, could be affected, as well as some power lines, he added.
Pálmadóttir notes that such models do not take into account potentially dangerous gases that can be released by a volcanic eruption.
Þórðarson adds that “the magma composition here is very different, the intensity of explosive activity will be significantly less.”
On Wednesday afternoon, an earthquake near the Keilir volcano, just 20 km south of the capital, led authorities to ban traffic in the area. On its website, the Icelandic MET office says similar activities have previously preceded outbreaks.
Víðir Reynisson, chief superintendent at the Icelandic department for civil protection and emergency management, said at a news conference on Wednesday that an eruption is ‘more likely than not’ within the next few hours. It would be the first in the area since the 12th century.
For now, residents are waiting for signs of an eruption, some with excitement, others with anxiety. Víkurfréttir, a local news service, has installed a video camera pointing at Keilir, which will start live when an eruption begins.
In the last 24 hours, the major earthquakes have felt that the previous days have largely subsided – but the current silence may not last long. “It’s definitely not over,” says Pálmadóttir.