Xi Jinping would achieve Mao Zedong level status in the Chinese Communist Party by taking over Taiwan and aiming to do so in the coming decade by surpassing the U.S. military, former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said.
Rudd, now president of the Asia Society in New York, has his thoughts on the upcoming March / April issue of Foreign Affairs, in which he calls the next ten years ‘the decade of dangerous life’.
Taiwan is one of the hotspots in the Asia-Pacific where Washington and Beijing are likely to clash in the 2020s. Chinese leader Xi is growing in confidence as senior policymakers in Beijing view the US as a force in ‘irreversible decline’, Rudd wrote.
Defense Department reports set out Beijing’s military ambitions in the coming decades, including the plan to transform the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) into a modern, world-class world combat force that can compete with that of the United States – a milestone , Rudd said, is planned for 2027.
Taipei’s own security analysis shows that the PLA seeks to exclude the US from conflict in the Strait of Taiwan with the heavy use of weapons against access / area denial – A2 / AD. Beijing’s maritime demands and military operations in the Eastern and South China Seas are part of the strategy.
Chinese officials, including Xi, have described Taiwan’s ‘unification’ with the mainland as one of the most important pursuits in the country, but Chinese leadership knows that a peaceful solution to its ‘problem in Taiwan’ is now less likely than ever. in the last 70 years, says Rudd, who was Australia’s foreign minister under Prime Minister Julia Gillard and also served as a diplomat in Beijing in the 1980s.
“China has become more authoritarian under Xi, and the promise of reunification under a ‘one country, two systems’ formula has evaporated as Taiwanese look to Hong Kong, where China has introduced a tough new national security law, arrested opposition politicians , and restricted media freedom, ”he wrote.
By displacing the U.S. military, at least in Asia, and exercising overwhelming military force in the Strait of Taiwan, Beijing could once again bring Washington down from a war it thinks it will lose, Rudd said.
“Without US support, Xi believes, Taiwan will capitulate or fight on its own and lose,” the former prime minister wrote, adding that achieving the ‘highest goal’ of intervening in Taiwan ” [Xi] at the same level within the CCP pantheon as Mao Zedong. “
Despite the ambitious Chinese leader’s ambitions, Rudd argues that decision – makers in Zhongnanhai face major challenges, including Taiwan’s own defense capability – which has been strengthened in recent years by US arms sales under former President Donald Trump – as well as the inevitable and ‘irreparable damage’. “to Chinese political legitimacy as a result of such a military campaign to conquer democratic Taiwan.
However, the most important of Beijing’s possible miscalculations may be the unpredictable nature of the US response to a necessity in the Strait of Taiwan.
By predicting that Washington would not wage a war he could not win, Beijing “projected its own deep strategic realism,” Rudd said, referring to the belief that an unsuccessful military campaign could tarnish America’s prestige and prestige. lose.
He added: “What China does not include in this calculation is the reverse possibility: that the failure to fight for a fellow democracy that supported the United States for the entire post-war period would also be catastrophic for Washington, especially with regard to the perception of American allies in Asia, which may conclude that the American security guarantees they have long relied on are worthless – and then seek their own arrangements with China. ‘
Another perspective on Rudd’s argument – the legitimate legitimacy of the electorate – can be found in last summer’s poll by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, which asked the public for their support for the United States’ hypothetical defense. States of India-Pacific allies, including Taiwan, Japan and South Korea.
According to the CSIS poll, respondents scored an average of 6.69 out of 10 for Taiwan’s defense, while Japan and South Korea scored 6.88 and 6.92, respectively.
By abolishing the term restrictions, Chinese President Xi plans to remain in power until 2035, Rudd predicted Foreign Affairs. The Chinese leader would be 82 and match the age of Mao’s death.
The biggest challenge for Xi’s goals comes from America and in the short term from President Joe Biden and his government. That includes experienced China experts in the state and defense departments, but also in the intelligence service, Rudd said. Beijing is also afraid of Biden’s credible statement to bring together the world’s most important democracies to balance China’s growing influence in international bodies, as well as trade and technology.
It is for this reason that the Chinese leadership would prefer a re-election of Trump, Rudd argues, citing the failures of the former president, especially in diplomacy, as territories Xi could exploit.
Recent statements by Washington and Beijing, however, make it clear that strategic competition between the two largest economies in the world is unlikely to slow down under Biden, even if China tries to reduce tensions with the US as a tactic, Rudd said.
“Biden intends to prove Beijing wrong in his assessment that the United States is now irreversibly deteriorating,” he wrote.
Rudd concludes by calling on the US and China to draw up a framework for ‘managed strategic competition’, a concept which he says would be difficult in the current climate, but not impossible.
Such an agreement would “be anchored in a deeply realistic view of the world order” and require it to be bought at the highest levels of government in Washington and Beijing, Rudd said.
This would include “hard limits” and concessions from both sides, he added, suggesting that Washington should better adhere to Beijing’s “one China” position and end diplomatic visits to Taipei.
In return, he said Beijing should reduce military activity in the Taiwan Strait and halt its militarization of islands in the South China Sea, where American freedom of navigation could also be curtailed.
Despite the numerous people who may have doubts about the feasibility of such an arrangement, it was necessary to prevent a conflict or war, Rudd argued.
“While it is difficult to construct such a framework, it is still possible – and the alternatives are likely to be catastrophic,” he wrote. “It is better for both countries to act within a common framework of managed competition than to have no rules at all.”
No military conflict in the Strait of Taiwan by 2030 would be a major sign of success, Rudd said. The opposite would be ‘the most provable example of a failed approach’, he added.
Sam Yeh / AFP via Getty Images