According to trusted analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, Apple will retain the Lightning connection on the iPhone for the ‘foreseeable future’, without switching to USB-C.
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Despite most of the industry moving to USB-C, Apple will not use it for the time being to replace the Lightning connector on the iPhone 13 or on any indeediPhone model. In a note seen by MacRumors Kuo explained yesterday that Apple is reluctant to switch to USB-C as it is a free, open standard and less waterproof than Lightning.
We believe that USB-C is detrimental to the profitability of the MFi business, and that its waterproof specification is lower than Lightning and MagSafe.
Currently, Apple is able to strictly regulate the quality of Lightning cables and accessories through its Made for iPhone (MFi) program. MFi also generates a significant amount of revenue for the company, as third-party manufacturers have to pay Apple a substantial commission to make lightning cables or accessories.
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Apple has used the Lightning connector on every iPhone 5 since the iPhone 5 in 2012, but it has transferred several of its devices to USB-C, including the iPad Pro, MacBook Pro, MacBook Air and more recently the iPad Air. Because the need to connect less external connections, and some USB-C features, such as external screen connections, are impossible on a iPhone, Apple is understandably less motivated to switch to USB-C on its most lucrative product for MFi.
The transition from the PiPhone to USB-C this year will also leave a significant number of devices, such as the entry-level iPad, iPad mini, AirPods and a plethora of accessories such as the Magic Trackpad and ‘MagSafe’ Duo charger, stuck with ‘ a connector will no longer be commonly used on any flagship products. The switch from the SwitchiPhone Switch to USB-C could therefore tip the scales against Lightning in Apple’s product range, which could possibly force the company to phase out the connection over a large number of products sooner than it wants.
Amid rumors about a homeless iPhone, Kuo explained that Apple is more likely to switch directly to a homeless model rather than switching to USB-C first:
If the iPhone Lightning leaves in the future, it can accept the portless design directly with ‘MagSafe’ support instead of using a USB-C port.
Despite this, Kuo has stated that ‘MagSafe’ wireless charging technology is not yet ready to move a wired port, as it only launched on the iPhone 12 series in October 2020. AgMagSafe is currently unable to transfer data, complete a device repair or take diagnostics, which are apparently essential features of a future iPhone without ports.
At present, the agMagSafe ecosystem is not mature enough, so the iPhone will continue to use the Lightning port for the foreseeable future.
Overall, this means that Apple plans to stick with the Lightning connection for the upcoming iPhone 13, but that it may also be able to extend to models further.
Kuo’s recent wave of reports about the future of the iPhone has included speculation that at least some iPhone models will drop the notch in 2022 and move to a “punch-hole display design” in 2022, and in 2023 Apple ‘ a 7.5–5 reveals 8-inch foldable iPhone.