WASHINGTON – This is a short year for national election politics, with only a few major gubernatorial races later in the year in Virginia and New Jersey. The ballot box data still shows that the major shift in the two largest political parties in the country continues, and some of the changes could have a significant effect on the ballot box.
Earlier this month, Gallup released data showing a sharp drop in the number of people they elected as Republicans in the first quarter of 2021.
The 9-point gap between the two parties was the largest Gallup has recorded in nearly a decade.
Democrats celebrated the numbers, but Republicans and analysts quickly pointed out that the numbers are not necessarily a departure from political norms in the past. The last time the Democrats had this huge advantage, Barack Obama had just won his second term in the White House.
The Democrats went back in time to even greater benefits in Gallup’s biased affiliation data, especially when the party had an election wave.
Back in 2008, when the Great Recession had just begun and Barack Obama was in the White House after his first victory, the Democrats had a massive 14-point lead in the party. In 1999, just after the Democrats did surprisingly well in Bill Clinton’s second midterm elections, the party had an 11-point lead. And in 1993, just after Bill Clinton won the White House for the first time, the Democrats had a 12-point lead in party ID.
This is all good evidence for the Republican argument that ‘we’ve seen it before’. And to further strengthen their position is the fact that the numbers have naturally backfired. Republicans had the affiliation lead in the mid-1990s and early 00s, and the two parties were basically equal at the beginning of 2020.
But another trend in politics suggests that what we see may be more than a somewhat typical election-related hump for Democrats. Data from the Pew Research Center shows that different people are increasingly populating the two major political parties – with Republicans and Democrats moving in sharply different directions among college-educated voters.
At the turn of the century, Republicans had an 11-point lead on the party ranks among college-educated voters. By the time Barack Obama was president, the numbers had turned around to become a 4-point lead for the Democrats. And as President Donald Trump’s term slipped, the numbers came full circle and the Democrats had a 13-point lead among college-educated voters over party affiliation.
The data therefore suggest that what we are seeing may be more than just a sudden democratic lead in the party context. The 2021 changes are accompanied by a greater shift in the composition of parties. And this could have a real impact on election time, as voters with different levels of education have long been exercising their voting right at different rates.
According to the US Census, voters with a bachelor’s degree vote much higher than other sections of the electorate. Their 64 percent turnout was 12 points higher than those with a certain college and 25 points higher than those with a high school diploma who achieved the highest level of education.
As Republicans drop college-educated voters, the party may find a new challenge that exacerbates the democratic lead in affiliation. Even if the numbers of membership bounce back this time, the different people in the IDP could make it harder for the party to get big returns in 2022. Midterm elections in particular are often about which party can elicit and point out their voters.
Admittedly, there are still many question marks. It is not yet clear what Trump’s impact on the 2022 race will be or how voters will feel about President Joe Biden in 18 months from now.
But the drop in GOP party ID, coupled with the Republican’s loss of college-educated voters, could cause problems for the party in the upcoming election. It’s not just how many people call themselves Republicans early in 2021, but it looks like the possible problem for the party, but also with the GOP.