Colorado is still making progress in reducing new cases and hospitalizations from COVID-19, but whether that continues will depend on what humans do – and how widely more infectious versions of the virus spread.
On Monday afternoon, 535 people were admitted to hospital with a confirmed or suspected COVID-19. This is a little over a quarter of the number of people receiving hospital care for the virus in December, but in summer more than twice the number at the low point.
The Colorado Department of Public Health and the Environment reported 8,460 new cases in the week ending Sunday. It was the lowest weekly total since mid-October.
It will be difficult to know if the Super Bowl has had an impact on the track of the virus, because so many other things are changing at the same time, said dr. Jon Samet, dean of the Colorado School of Public Health, said. Many provinces eased public health restrictions on Saturday. If there is an increase, it will be difficult to know if it was due to parties or policies. And more people are being vaccinated, which could eliminate a small button of celebrations, he said.
The improvement since December shows that the restrictions put in place to fight the deadly November increase were effective and that people usually followed them and were careful with their interaction, Samet said. The conditions got the virus under control enough for the state to look at easing restrictions, he said.
On Saturday, the state’s framework changed, increasing the number of cases a country could have before moving to the next level of restrictions. In Denver’s case, that meant the country could move from Level Orange to Level Yellow. Under Level Yellow, restaurants, gyms and other businesses can operate at 50% of capacity, which is double what they are allowed under Level Orange.
Samet said he would continue to drop “hopeful” cases and hospitalizations, but the number of factors affecting the virus’ path makes it difficult to predict. Policies and people’s behaviors have dropped cases and hospitalizations since December, and vaccinations are also working in our favor, he said. At the same time, if people feel safe and start mixing more freely, it can give the virus a boost.
“I wish I knew how this balance would turn out,” he said.
New variants of the virus are also a potential game card. The state found 37 cases of variants that are of concern because they spread more easily, and 16 cases of variants whose meaning is unknown. Viruses are constantly mutating and forming new variants, but only a handful have worrying characteristics, such as being more contagious or more deadly.
There is not enough data to know how widely B.1.1.7, a more contagious version of the virus first identified in the UK, actually spreads in Colorado, Samet said. If this variant becomes common, it will increase the number of cases and hospitalizations, he said.
Since March, 406,276 people in Colorado have tested positive for the virus, and 22,329 have been admitted to the hospital. The state reported 5,733 coronavirus-related deaths.
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