Her departure opens a district in Tucson that hosted one of the closest home races in the country in 2014. But since then it has done Democratic tendencies and this cycle will be set up by an independent commission. Arizona is on course to get a seat in the redistribution.
Democratic State Representative Randy Friese, a trauma surgeon who at the time Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-Ariz.) After she was shot in the head in 2011, he will likely run to the seat, according to a source familiar with his thinking. He represents Tucson in the State House and considered a Senate administration in 2018 before electing him to the current Senate. Kyrsten Sinema.
Other possible Democratic candidates include Matt Heinz, the 2016 nominee for the seat now on the board of supervisors in Pima County, and state representatives Andrés Cano and Daniel Hernández Jr.
On the GOP side, Lea Márquez Peterson, who conveniently lost to Kirkpatrick in 2018, can run again. And State Representative TJ Shope was in touch with Republicans of the House over a bid in 2022. He currently represents Pinal County, north of the 2nd District. But if a re-signing in his current legislative seat makes sense, he could be a contender.
Kirkpatrick had a very unconventional congressional career. She was first elected in 2008 to the sprawling 1st District that stretches across the northeastern part of the state and includes southern Phoenix and the Navajo and Hopi nations. She won the seat vacated by Republican Rick Renzi – who was embroiled in a scandal and was eventually convicted on federal fraud charges – but then lost it during the 2010 GOP wave to Republican Paul Gosar.
The 2012 rematch opened a new red seat for Gosar and gave Kirkpatrick her return. She won it that year and a solid race again in 2014, but left home for a second time in 2016 for a bad bid against the then Sen. John McCain, to whom she lost, 54 percent to 41 percent.
In 2018, she ran for the seat she now holds when then-Republican Martha McSally ran for Senate. Kirkpatrick said she moved to Tucson to be closer to her grandchildren. She beat Márquez Peterson by 10 points.
Kirkpatrick, born in an Apache reservation, had a unique connection with rural indigenous communities in the district and fought for more water access, benefits for veterans and better housing for the tribes in the district. She grew up speaking the Apache language.
She ran as a proud moderate in earlier presentations and displayed an A rating from the National Rifle Association, but later a strong supporter of gun control laws after Giffords, her friend, was shot.
In 2020, Kirkpatrick bids farewell to Congress seeking treatment for alcoholism – a move caused by a fall she suffered in the Washington area that left her with back and rib injuries.
The 2nd District fell away from Republicans. Mitt Romney wore it nail-bitingly in 2012, but Hillary Clinton won it in 2016 by 4 points. President Joe Biden carried it by 2020 by 12 points.
Yet Torunn Sinclair, a spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said Republicans “look forward to redesigning this seat.”
“Ann Kirkpatrick saw the writing on the wall: the majority of Democrats’ house is doomed,” Sinclair said.
McSally initially won the seat by beating current representative Ron Barber, district director of Giffords, who was also injured during the 2011 shooting, by 167 votes.