There are growing signs that parts of the country may be close to the demand for the coronavirus vaccine – long before the US reaches herd immunity.
Why it matters: For the past few months, the US’s primary focus has been to make shots at anyone who wants it as quickly as possible. Soon, this focus will suddenly shift to convincing results to be vaccinated.
Game status: Red states in the South administer the lowest proportion of vaccine doses they receive from the federal government – a sign of low demand, slow public health systems or both.
- The poll found that most Americans do not hesitate to use the vaccine.
By the numbers: On average, states administered 76% of the doses they received from the federal government. New Hampshire administered the largest of all states, at 89.8%, while Alabama administered the smallest – only 61.4% of its doses.
Send the news: An analysis released by Surgo Ventures yesterday concluded that ‘the shift in demand for the vaccine will take place earlier than expected – as early as the end of April – previously the country reaches the threshold of 70-90% for achieving herd immunity. ‘
- It released a survey which found that 59% of American adults say they have been vaccinated, or that they intend to do so once the shot is made available to them. At the current US vaccination rate, all enthusiastic adults can be vaccinated by the end of April.
- Vaccination rates will then slow down and according to Surgo’s forecasts, about 52% of Americans will be vaccinated by July. In combination with people who are already infected, the immunity rate could be around 65% by that time – still not high enough for herd immunity.
What they say: “This analysis shows that despite the general enthusiasm we are now experiencing in the United States, things are really going to get really difficult,” said Surgo CEO Sema Sgaier.
- “Without significant investment to address people’s barriers and making vaccines available to those under 18, achieving herd immunity will be a major challenge. ”
A separate survey of the rural Americans, released this morning by KFF, found that although they are more likely to have already been vaccinated than urban and suburban Americans, there are fewer remaining rural residents who are eager to get their shots fired.
- 39% have already received at least one dose of the vaccine, 16% say they will get it as soon as possible, and 15% said they want to “wait and see.”
- Another 9% said they would only be vaccinated if necessary, and 21% said they would definitely not do so. In suburban areas, a combined 21% said they were vaccine resistant, and only 16% of urban residents said the same.
- Among rural residents who said they would certainly not be vaccinated, nearly three-quarters were Republicans or Republican leaders, and 41% were white Evangelical Christians.
The conclusion: Rural, Republican-heavy states are probably waving their vaccine population.