With cases of coronavirus and related hospitalizations climbing nationwide, is California also heading for a fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic?
The Midwest, New England, and New York areas have faced coronavirus cases, and some have expressed concern that Los Angeles County was previously only a few weeks behind New York trends. In the past week, the average daily cases of coronavirus nationwide increased by 5% compared to the previous week and the change in new COVID-19 hospitalizations by 7%.
But so far, California remains relatively in good condition. California has one of the lowest average daily coronavirus cases in the country over the past seven-day period, while Michigan’s case – the worst in the country – is 12 times higher than that of California, which puts hospitals there under increasing pressure.
One factor that may help California – for reasons that are not fully understood – is the presence of the California variant. The California variant here may help to keep a lid on the British variant, which is believed to be more transmissible than the conventional strains of the coronavirus and is likely to result in a greater chance of death.
Here are some reasons why Michigan is doing so poorly, while California – so far – looks much better.
The British tribe dominates the outbreak of the Middle East
The current wave of Michigan is reaching a strength like the peak of the winter push, said dr. George Rutherford, an epidemiologist at UC San Francisco, said at a recent campus forum. Michigan’s recent wave has been fueled by youth athletics events, including major outbreaks involving hockey teams, Rutherford said. Minnesota also sees a group of new businesses.
A major factor in the Midwest boom is the presence of the British variant, which now accounts for about 70% of new coronavirus cases in Michigan and Minnesota, Rutherford said. Michigan now sees its hospitals under pressure from patient increases, and some state hospitals are canceling non-emergency procedures and taking in plans for pandemic training, the Detroit Free Press reports.
A bright side, however, is that it looks like the group in New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Connecticut is’ starting to spin a bit, ” Rutherford said.
An outstanding question is whether the surge in COVID-19 in the neighboring Canadian province of Ontario is affecting the surge in cases in the Middle East and Northeast, Rutherford said. ‘The borders are closed, [so] I’m not quite sure what that all means. But it’s something to take note of, ‘Rutherford said.
Doctors in Ontario have begun pleading with government officials to send more intensive care units to the Toronto area “to avoid a triage situation,” the Toronto Star reported Saturday.
The California variant possibly keeps British tensions under control
In California, the British variant now probably accounts for 40% of new cases of coronavirus, Rutherford said, but unlike in Michigan, ‘it did not drive the overall epidemic curve,’ Rutherford said.
Part of the reason for this is that the California variant could possibly surpass the British variant to dominate the state. Of cumulative genomically sorted virus samples, more than 12,000 cases of the California variant – also known as the West Coast variant (B.1.427 / B.1.429) – were identified in California, compared to 980 of the British variant (B.1.1 .7).
The California variant is believed to be 20% more transmissible than the conventional coronavirus strains, but the British variant is thought to be 50% more transmissible and is likely to cause worse disease.
Some experts said they would assume the British variant would displace the California variant. But Rutherford said, somewhat counter-intuitively, that the California variant could hold the UK variant in a way.
Rutherford said he could not fully explain it, but “for whatever reason, they seem to be pushing it out of the way.” An upcoming study of coronavirus cases identified in the Mission District of San Francisco is expected to report almost no cases of the British variant.
It is possible that California will eventually be dominated by the British variant, Rutherford said. ‘But at the moment we have a lot more of the [California variant], ”Rutherford said.
If you had to choose between the California variant and the UK variant which is more prevalent, the California variant is preferable because it is relatively less transmissible and lethal than the British variant.
‘If it was the British variant [that was dominating California], we will be in a worse condition, ‘said dr. Robert Wachter, chairman of the University of San Francisco, said at the campus forum.
Relatively high immunity rates could help California
The fall-and-winter boom in California tore through many lower-income and heavy Latino communities, leaving a high death toll. These communities have been particularly hard hit because many residents live in overcrowded homes and have jobs that require them to leave home and are exposed to a higher risk of infection.
However, the intensity of the autumn and winter waves has led to a large number of survivors now having protection against coronavirus infections and COVID-19.
Officials estimate that approximately 38% of LA County residents have been infected with the coronavirus since the onset of the pandemic. And Rutherford said he suspects there are parts of LA, such as in Boyle Heights and South LA, in which half of the residents are infected.
Rutherford said it is possible that California could achieve something approaching herd immunity by June 15.
The Politics of Lockdown in Michigan
So far, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has refused to impose new mandatory restrictions to deal with the recent boom. Whitmer on Friday called for a two-week voluntary suspension of indoor restaurants, youth sports and personal high school classes, and decides against mandatory assignments, though some doctors say they are necessary.
“Nobody wants another exclusion, but we need it,” tweeted Dr. Mona Hanna-Attisha, a pediatrician and author of “What the Eyes Don’t See: A Story of Crisis, Resistance, and Hope in an American City.” Hanna-Attisha won the Freedom of Expression Courage Award for her efforts to overcome the dangerous levels of lead in the water in Flint, Mich.
After the fall-and-winter boom, indoor restaurant dining resumed in Michigan on Feb. 1; LA County resumed indoor restaurant meals much later, which was able to reopen operations on March 15th.
National experts, including dr. Anthony Fauci, the US government’s leading expert on infectious diseases, has long warned against reopening states too quickly after the winter surge, fearing a rapid reopening would lead to a relapse into another upsurge.
In late February, Fauci warned against moves by states to reopen too quickly. On CNN, Fauci noted that in the earlier periods of the pandemic ‘when we started withdrawing prematurely, we saw the setback. We certainly do not want that to happen. ”
Last week, the director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, called for “stronger mitigation strategies” to reduce disease transmission in Michigan.
What can cause problems in California?
Problems that could delay the end of the California pandemic include the introduction of a new variant in California or the discovery of a problem with a vaccine that could undermine confidence in the shots, Rutherford said.
The vaccines now approved in the US have proven to be very effective and safe, experts say. And the variants that pose a relatively greater risk of being resistant to vaccines – the South African and Brazilian variants – have yet to gain a firm foothold in the US
“The number of states with more than a handful of cases is really disappearingly small,” Rutherford said. “I have not yet seen what worries me.”