Covid-19 has killed more than 530,000 Americans and China is at an all-time low with the US. Only Iran and North Korea are doing worse. American opinion is no outlier. China’s reputation has taken a beating in Australia, the United Kingdom, Sweden, the Netherlands and Germany. Images of tanks rolling through Tiananmen Square in the summer of 1989 were repressed through the stone wall of Beijing over the origin of the plague.
Washington Post reporter Josh Rogin reminds us in Chaos Under Heaven that under Xi Jinping, China stopped exporting personal protective equipment manufactured by American companies, sent defective PBT to the Netherlands and banned Australian beef exports after Canberra ‘ an investigation into the origin of Covid-19. In Rogin’s told, China’s “mask diplomacy” was a blunt tool, designed to continue to criticize abroad and sow fear at home.
Rogin provides the necessary clarity. Under the subtitles Trump, Xi and the Battle for the Twenty-First Century, he explains what the US and its allies have done wrong over decades over China, disputes within the Trump administration and personal financial conflicts that have affected US policy. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump are very strong. But Hunter and James Biden are also watching.
McConnell’s wealth is linked to his wife’s interest in Chinese shipping. Angela Chao, his sister-in-law, is CEO of the company and sits on the board of the Bank of China. The U.S. Department of Transportation Inspector General recently reported that Elaine Chao, McConnell’s wife and Trump’s secretary of transportation, escaped after the Department of Justice weighed.
In the fall of 2019, McConnell and Trump thwarted progress on the human rights and democracy bill in Hong Kong, which cleared the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, then controlled by Republicans. Back in 1992, McConnell supported legislation passed regarding Hong Kong’s autonomy. Already in the summer of 2019, he is writing an essay in support. Time – and perhaps marriage – can change perspective.
Rogin has long had interests in human rights and the Far East. He spent the early days of his career in the Asahi Shimbun, a Japanese daily newspaper, and more recently rubbed shoulders with an informal group of opponents of the Chinese government, which he calls the “Bingo Club.” One member was Peter Mattis, a former CIA analyst and cousin of James Mattis, Trump’s first secretary of defense. During the 2016 Republican convention, Rogin broke the story of the Trump campaign that “slandered” the GOP’s anti-Russia platform over Ukraine.
Chaos Under Heaven moves fast, is well written and attracts the reader. Rogin makes it clear that tensions between Beijing and Washington are likely to remain for the foreseeable future. China’s economy and military are still growing, America’s social divides are still on display. Under Xi, you should not expect the Middle Kingdom to retreat.
One of Rogin’s main points is that Trump correctly identified the threat and challenge of China, yet was unable to formulate and adhere to a coherent strategy. Much of the time, he put together personal relationships with the national interest. As his approach to North Korea showed, not everyone bought what he sold. His attempt to lure China into the swamp was a bust. The art of the deal is far more difficult than Trump trumpets.
On the ground, the 2016 food fights were transferred to the White House. The West Wing was riddled with factions. Transplants on Wall Street, military veterans and diehard Maga-ites exchanged verbal blows. The former presenter of the reality show sighed and struggled, waving hot and cold when TV and his moods gripped him.
During the 2016 transition, Trump accepted a congratulatory call from Tsai Ing-wen, President of Taiwan. Not surprisingly, China was angry – he considered the island his own. Uncertainty about Taiwan was central to the US approach to China in the 1970s. Trump backtracked on his words, invited Xi to Mar-a-Lago and treated him to the ‘most beautiful piece of chocolate cake you’ve ever seen’.
As for Trump’s attack on Taiwan, he told a senator that it was “like two feet from China” and that the US was “8,000 kilometers away”. Trump eagerly added that if the Chinese invaded, “there is no fucking thing we can do about it”. So much for US policy.
Trump’s inability to enter into labor alliances hampered U.S. reactions. Confronting China had to be played well with others. Trump does not appear to be able to set personal peaks aside and promote a consensus. Sometimes he went into the technological threat posed by China, for the sake of an elusive trade agreement.
On the positive side of the ledger, Beijing’s behavior during the pandemic made governments realize that “their dependence on China was a political vulnerability”. The UK turned around and banned Huawei, the Chinese communications Goliath, from its networks.
No book on Trump is complete without at least one blissful piece. Chaos Under Heaven believes Trump has an unfounded rumor that Gen. HR McMaster, his second national security adviser, is having an extramarital affair. As expected, Trump could not keep the news to himself.
The former president asked at a packed Oval Office staff meeting, “Have you heard who fucks McMaster?” Trump was the puritan, and he warned: “He will get us all in trouble if he can not keep his dick in his pants.” The Manhattan District Attorney is still investigating all things Trump included, including payments to Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal.
Rogin notes that Trump “was very good at hitting the chessboard, but he could not set the board up again.” That said, he ‘shifted the conversation about China in a way that cannot be undone’.