Ethiopian troops and their allies in the tranquil northern province of Tigray are facing a growing uprising fueled by a series of massacres and other violence against civilians.
The country’s prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, launched a military offensive four months ago to “restore the rule of law” by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the province’s political party in power. expelled, after rising tensions and a surprise attack on a federal military base.
Despite the government’s claims of a significant improvement in the security situation over the past few weeks, it appears that tens of thousands of Ethiopian troops and soldiers sent by neighboring Eritrea to support the military operations of Addis Ababa are facing continued resistance.
Mekelle, the provincial capital, is relatively calm, but there are reports that they have fought elsewhere. About a third of the province could remain out of government control.
A series of violent clashes took place in mid-February around Samre, a small town 40 km south-west of Mekelle, while thousands of Ethiopian troops backed by artillery, tanks and airstrikes faithfully dug up forces at the TPLF.
Residents in Adigrat, north-east of Tigray, say they have heard heavy gunfire for days in hills around the town. Similar reports come from the city of Adwa at a strategically important crossroads near the border with Eritrea and several other places.
There are also reports of ambushes and other clashes in central and western Tigray, but with severe media and communications restrictions slashing most of the province, it is difficult to confirm.
In its most recent report on conditions in Tigray, the UN said there was intensification across the province.
Abiy declared war in December after the TPLF leadership evacuated Mekelle and established an interim government loyal to Addis Ababa. The TPLF suffered heavy casualties in the conflict and lost much of its military hardware.
Since then, however, it appears to have regrouped. Several senior TPLF leaders have been captured, but others remain in mountainous areas and have been able to make contact with analysts, media and supporters outside Ethiopia over the past few days.
Getachew K Reda, a former TPLF minister, sent a series of tweets from an unknown location earlier this week, his first since November, and TPLF president Gebretsion Debremichael gave an interview to CNN.
Revolution
The Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) overthrows Colonel Mengistu Haile Mariam, the head of a communist junta that has ruled the country since 1974. The coalition group is led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), guerrilla fighters who have withdrawn from their homeland. in northern Ethiopia as far as the capital Addis Ababa.
Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia proclaimed
The EPRDF sweeps into power in poorly contested elections, and TPLF leader Meles Zenawi becomes Ethiopia’s prime minister. Tigrans dominate senior government ranks.
Ethnic federalism
Meles introduces a system that gives the most important ethnic groups in the country the chance to govern the areas in which they dominate. Although Tigrayans make up about 5% of the population, they benefit excessively, complaining to other regions because roads and other infrastructure are being built in their sparsely populated area.
Meles dies
The prime minister dies in office and a successor to another ethnic group is appointed.
ERPDF split
Divisions are erupting in the EPRDF over how quickly political reforms should be pursued in response to street protests threatening the grip of the coalition.
Abiy Ahmed comes to power
Abiy Ahmed, an Oromo, takes over as prime minister and wins praise at home and abroad for opening one of Africa’s most limited political and economic systems.
Crashes
Tigrants complain that they are being persecuted for suppressing corruption and abuse in the past. Former senior military and political officials are executed.
Peace Prize
Abiy is awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his peace efforts, which put an end to two decades of hostility towards Eritrea. The TPLF considers Eritrea an enemy.
Sections
The ruling coalition of Ethiopia agrees to form a single party, but the TPLF refuses to merge with three other ethnic parties, calling the move hasty and undemocratic.
Election drive
Tigray is holding regional elections in defiance of the federal government, which postponed nationwide polls due to August Covid-19 in August. Abiy’s government says the vote is illegal.
Funds withheld
The federal government is starting to withhold certain funds intended for social welfare programs in Tigray, as part of a plan to starve the local government cash in retaliation for the vote.
Fighting breaks out
Abiy sends troops to Tigray, accusing the TPLF of attacking federal troops in the region. The TPLF accuses Abiy of punishing the region for the vote in September. Reuters
U.S. and European intelligence officials have been closely monitoring the fighting for Samre, looking for indicators of the intensity and possible future course of the fighting in Tigray.
One said the fight suggested a “complex, dynamic and chaotic” game was underway. The TPLF ‘got pretty heavy in the first months and took time to recover. “Now it looks like they have gathered,” the official said.
Samre, a group of houses with steel roofs and a market on a plateau, have exchanged repeatedly since mid-November. When the TPLF troops last withdrew in mid-February, a large portion of the population also fled and, according to residents, were hit by airstrikes and artillery shelling. It is alleged that government troops then emptied grain shops and destroyed orchards in retaliation for people’s support for the TPLF.
Tigray Card
Local sources reported on Wednesday that Eritrean soldiers in the city had told the remaining civilians that further support for TPLF forces would be severely punished. According to one unconfirmed report, the soldiers threatened to amputate a hand and a foot, referring to a punishment from the 19th-century Ethiopian kings who devised traitors in times of war.
One senior TPLF leader said his military commanders were told not to occupy positions that would make them vulnerable to the superior firepower of federal forces, especially in rural areas.
“Landscape is crucial,” says Wolbert Smidt, a German historian and ethnographer who has lived in Ethiopia for decades, most notably in Tigray. ‘The population is largely rural and uses roads and communication networks that are only known locally. This is why governments in the past have never been able to establish effective control without some degree of recognition of local autonomy. ”
Mass killings and other human rights violations motivate many young Migrants to take up arms, independent observers and TPFL officials told the Guardian.
Incidents include the murder of as many as 700 people at a famous religious site near Axum, and another 164 at Dengolat, a village in northern Tigray. Cruelty is also attributed to the Tigrayan forces. Hundreds of people were killed in a massacre blamed on a TPLF-linked militia in early November in Mai Kadra.
Human Rights Watch said on Friday that the massacre in Axum took place after members of the Tigraya Militia, along with some residents, attacked Eritrean soldiers. The Eritreans called in reinforcements, then began searching for young men and boys and executed them.
“The [Tigrayan] youth is very angry. Until recently, [the TPLF] could not train or arm all the volunteers who come to them … In recent days they are telling them to come forward again, ”said one TPLF administrative official who fled from Tigray to a neighboring province and in contact with former colleagues there. .
William Davison, an Ethiopian analyst at the International Crisis Group, said there were several reports of young men joining the TPLF’s military wing as news of atrocities spread. “There seems to be almost unanimous outrage … It is very difficult to say how big the rebel force is now, but all indicators indicate that manpower is not a problem,” he said.
The anger among Tigrayans is intensified by attacks on sites that have a major cultural interest in the province. The target of one-day sanctuary refugees also pushed those fleeing violence to seek out the TPLF-controlled zones, indicating that messages were passed on by local residents to family members outside Tigray.
Michelle Bachelet, the UN’s high commissioner for human rights, said on Thursday that her office was confirming serious offenses that could amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity in Tigray.
Most of the massacres reported so far took place in November or December last year, but there is evidence that this continued into January. Between 150 and 300 young men allegedly died about six weeks ago in a village near Dela, south of Samre.
Although the details of the incident are unclear, relatives of victims contacted friends and sympathizers in Europe, telling them that after clashes with TPLF fighters, government soldiers gathered men of fighting age and shot many in the field. After Samre was recovered in mid-February, it appears that fires were deliberately set to destroy more than 500 structures near the city.
Other images indicate similar burning of houses elsewhere in Tigray, such as along the border with Eritrea.
There is also great concern about attacks on women and children, and ongoing sexual violence. Patients at the Ayder Referral Hospital in Mekelle included about 120 survivors of sexual violence, some of whom reported raping soldiers to the group. “It’s a scourge for women. Our sisters are suffering, ”said a doctor who works with rape survivors and asked not to be named for fear of retaliation.
Eritrean officials described the allegations of massacre by their soldiers as ‘outrageous lies’. The Ethiopian government on Wednesday said federal officials were investigating “credible allegations of atrocities and serious human rights abuses” and would ensure accountability.
“Ethiopia rejects any partisan and politically motivated campaigns against the country and the government, which are aimed at undermining the measures of the law they have taken, and will continue to bring the criminal clique and other perpetrators to justice. , “reads the statement.
Davison described the conflict as ‘probably invincible for either side’. “If people are going to put the pieces back together, they need to find a way to start a political process,” he said.