Photo illustration: by Vulture; Photos by Searchlight Pictures and Hulu
Every week between March 15 and 15, when the nominations for the Oscars are announced, Vulture will consult his crystal ball to determine the changing fortunes of this year’s Oscars race. In us “Oscar Futures”-Column, let us introduce you to gossip, analyze brand new developments and track the industry to find out who is on the way, who is not and who is currently the forerunner for a coveted Oscar nomination.
Best picture
Nomadland
Nomadland was the big winner at Sunday’s Golden Globes, although it would be premature to consider it a coronation: in the era of preferential voting, Oscar’s best picture only overlapped with the Globes’ choices about half the time. Yet it was a significant victory for Chloé Zhao’s film, as Nomadland not only HFPA’s favorite Aaron Sorkin in best drama and best director, but also proved that Zhao’s critical darling can appeal to voters whose tastes are more general. With Oscar voting finally this week, the Globes gave the Academy a vision of Nomadland triumphant. Will they like what they saw?
Mank
The HFPA has gone harder for Mank David Fincher’s silver screen drama is a leading six Globe nominations. But dreams of a Lack-back was thwarted when Fincher’s film did not win any of them, an unpleasant sign for a film that was once a strong candidate. MankThe impeccable relaxation of Hollywood in the 1930s should ensure that it includes the nominations for crafts – Cinematography, Production Design, Visual Effects, and Costumes are all in play – but there is a clear possibility that, like Netflix’s previous author dream project . The Irish, this popular early season best picture could also go blank on Oscar night. Keep it shot glass handy, Finch.
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Judas and the Black Messiah, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Minari, News of the World, Nomadland, A night in Miami, Promising young woman, The Chicago 7 Trial
Best Director
Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
A Fincher incensed at the Globes could have wheeled this category, but instead the HFPA got a crayon and Zhao handed over her most trophy for the season. The race is anything but tailor-made for the Chinese director, who is on track to become the latest emerging filmmaker to be anointed with this award.
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
The gap between the top best candidates and everyone else only grew at the Globes, as much of the second tier went home empty-handed. In the light, Minari taking the Best Foreign Language Film Globe made it the rare Schrödinger’s Oscar film, a film that is both a competitor and an underdog: Team Minari broadcast the success of television while the controversial placement was contributed to the feeling that the immigrant drama did not quite get the future.
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Lee Isaac Chung, Minari; David Fincher, Mank; Regina King, A night in Miami; Aaron Sorkin, The Chicago 7 Trial; Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
Best Actor
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
As everyone expected, Boseman won a posthumous Golden Globe, an occasion that saw his widow Taylor Simone Ledward turn into the most emotional acceptance speech of the night. I think there was no doubt about his Oscar chance before, but Sunday night just tied it. The Globes’ primary function as a forerunner is to serve as a first draft of the Oscar broadcast, and Ledward’s touching appearance was a moment that the Academy certainly wanted a repeat. In reality …
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
We can argue about who will achieve the fourth and fifth best actor place, but at this stage it is all academic: Boseman wins the trophy.
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Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal; Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom; Anthony Hopkins, The father; Gary Oldman, Mank; Steven Yeun, Minari
Best Actress
Second day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
In the most shocking result of the night, Day won Best Actress in a Drama World over a quartet of more candidates. You have to go all the way back to 1988 – a year in which the Globes had an unprecedented triangle – to find an actress in a drama winner who did not win an Oscar nomination. So it looks like Day has locked up the final Oscar spot. Can she take home the big prize once she enters? Snubs from SAG and BAFTA, two organizations with a lot of overlap with the Academy, may indicate that the Globes on Day were hotter than all. However, her role pushes a lot of the Oscar-friendly buttons, from real singing to drug addiction to a dramatic death scene, and a victory on national television may just be the thing that shows voters a performance in a new light.
Carey Mulligan, Promising young woman
Before the Globes evening, experts speculated about Promising young woman possibly a troubled victory in the screenplay or even director. Not only did the persons not realize, but Mulligan lost by Day in a category she won everywhere. I’ll still bet on Mulligan if anyone else in the field for the best actress, but it’s never a good sign if the HFPA passes a buzzing, hyper-styled movie that looks like it’s in the wheelhouse. Suffice it to say that a race that looks like it could turn into a Mulligan pickup has become much less predictable.
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Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom; Second day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday; Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a woman; Frances McDormand, Nomadland; Carey Mulligan, Promising young woman
Best city player
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Can Kaluuya fight for the Oscar, even if it is? Black Messiah do you get no other big nominations? The British actor cleared the number 1 hurdle for his candidacy on Sunday. He took the supporting actor Globe along over some of the contestants from the best candidates for best film. And despite some unfortunate technical problems, he still manages to deliver a completely charming acceptance speech. I expect Kaluuya to be the one to beat.
Leslie Odom Jr., A night in Miami
Of the men who lost Kaluuya to the Globes, Sacha Baron Cohen can at least be happy that he won an actor in a musical / comedy for Borat subsequent Moviefilm, the project he apparently prefers to promote this season. No luck for Odom Jr., who missed his chance at a consolation song prize when the HFPA instead opted for Diane Warren’s Italian ballad “Io sì”. All in all an unforgettable one night on Zoom for Regina King’s film, which was zero for three.
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Sacha Baron Cohen, The Chicago 7 Trial; Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 bloods; Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah; Jared Leto, The little things; Leslie Odom Jr., A night in Miami
Best city player
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Except for Day, Foster was a dark horse of the supporting actress who achieved her own surprising victory. She made the most of her moment and delivered a pajama-clad speech with her wife. I suspect that winners in the past have an advantage in a season in which everyone pays only half as much attention to the race as usual, and it now appears that we have another one.
Maria Bakalova, Borat subsequent Moviefilm
Bakalova, who starred in a musical / comedy at the Globes as an actress, needed a victory – and the supposedly hilarious speech that would accompany it – to get her out of the Oscar bubble. Instead, she lost Rosamund Pike I care a lot. One evening the HFPA handed over Borat two other trophies, it feels like the Bulgarian just blew her best chance.
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Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy; Olivia Colman, The father; Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian; Amanda Seyfried, Mank; Yuh-jung Youn, Minari
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