Biden says the US will have enough Covid-19 vaccines for adults by May

All of a sudden, the news about the US Covid-19 vaccine front looks very positive. In fact, it’s so positive that the words that Americans have been waiting to hear seem true: you’ll be getting a vaccine soon.

President Joe Biden shared the good news Tuesday. As he told reporters: “We are now on track to have enough vaccine for every adult in America by the end of May” – two months earlier than the July timeline he had previously given.

It’s not just Biden. Last month, Anthony Fauci, the top federal expert on infectious diseases, said he expected it to be an “open season” in late May or early June. Over the past few weeks, experts I spoke to have also sounded increasingly positive about the prospect that every adult in the U.S. will get a chance in the next few months.

The national vaccination figures reflect the following: The US now calculates an average of 1.9 million shots per day from March 2, compared to less than 1 million in mid-January. Even if it does not improve – which seems unlikely – the current rate puts the country on the right track to gain herd immunity by the end of the summer, when enough people are vaccinated to stop the spread of the virus.

None of this is guaranteed. There are still big questions about how it will all play out, from questions about when exactly states will facilitate their vaccination criteria, to the question of whether manufacturing and distribution will really manage to keep up. Different states, provinces and even cities are likely to have different experiences.

It is unfortunately not clear when, exactly, a particular person will eventually get a chance. We just do not know yet.

The good news is also not a sign that we should jointly relax on the basic precautions against Covid-19, including masking and physical distance. With vaccinations, we can get our lives back to normal – and if you are vaccinated and want to meet privately with other people who are being vaccinated, that’s probably fine.

But as a society, and especially in the public sphere, it is important that we wait until the vast majority of people are vaccinated to truly relax: with thousands of people still dying every day from Covid-19, the precautions we all take are heard over the past year it is crucial to save lives – possibly tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands. (It is therefore worrying that some states, such as Texas and Mississippi, are now going to reopen and end restrictions, including mask mandates.)

However, the fact that the vaccine news is very good should not be obscured. Finally, a finish line is visible with this pandemic. Now it is up to us and our leaders to make sure that so many of us make it possible.

The rollout of vaccines has improved dramatically

Early in America’s vaccination of vaccines, the news was not good.

Across most of the country, there were reports of equipment breakdowns, inadequate staffing and doses of unused vaccines. After advancing vaccine research and development, it appears that former President Donald Trump’s government is doing little or nothing to ensure that the vaccines are actually distributed – instead of downloading doses with states and them the rest too late to find out. When Biden first said he wanted to have 1 million vaccines administered a day, the goal seemed ambitious in the context of a messy rollout.

Then things quickly started to improve. States and cities began to get better at spreading shots – correcting logistical barriers, in some cases simplifying the state criteria to maximize speed, and consequently shooting more of the vaccine supplies they received into weapons. The federal government offered more support: the billions of dollars approved by Congress in December began to roll out, and the new Biden government offered more proactive guidance while gradually increasing the supply of vaccines delivered to the states.

The US jumped past Biden’s original target of 1 million vaccines a day today. The country is now averaging more than 1.9 million shots a day (after a temporary slowdown late last month due to winter weather) and it is likely to reach an average of 2 million a day this week. Based on what drug companies have promised, the US is likely to have an offer capacity of at least 3 million vaccines per day this month.

While there are still important, unresolved questions about whether and how federal, state and local governments are going to turn supply into a shotgun, over the past few weeks there has been a better distribution of confidence that it is possible, even likely, that they it will succeed.

Our world in data

To put these numbers in context: at a rate of 2 million shots per day, the U.S. will achieve what scientists expect to be herd immunity – about 80 percent of the country being vaccinated – in late summer. At 3 million a day, the country could reach herd immunity by mid-summer, giving us the second half of the summer to hopefully enjoy a life much closer to the normal pre-pandemic.

There are still many important questions: will the vaccine manufacturers keep their promises? Will the federal government send out the vaccine supply quickly, and help the states and places administer those doses? Will states, provinces and cities be able to handle the rapid increase in distribution? Will new Covid-19 variants affect the effectiveness of the vaccines? (So ​​far, early research suggests that the vaccines are still effective against the variants, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.)

And perhaps most importantly, will enough Americans want to be vaccinated? Surveys show that about 30 percent of Americans are reluctant. If it persists, it will probably be enough to eliminate the chance of true herd immunity, especially since every adult must be vaccinated to reach the required threshold, as long as a vaccine is not yet available for children.

On a more individual level, there is a lot of uncertainty about when exactly one can get a chance. States have relaxed their criteria for who can be vaccinated at different rates. Some are still working on what the next distribution phase will look like, and even less the phase thereafter. So whether any individual who is not in one of the current priority groups will get a chance in March, April or May – or even later – will probably differ from state to state.

But we can say with at least certainty that the country is on track to make a vaccine available to all adults this summer or earlier.

This is not the time to soften the Covid-19 precautions

Along with the good vaccine news, we have also had positive news in other areas of Covid-19 over the past few weeks: the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths has dropped dramatically from their highest points after the holidays. The US is not clear yet – in a worrying sign, the decline in business started to slow down last week – but it is certainly in a much better state than it was just a few weeks ago.

Some government officials, including in Texas and Mississippi, have responded by lifting restrictions on Covid-19, including restrictions on reopening businesses and masking mandates.

But experts say it is still too soon. In response to Texas ‘announcement that its mask mandate and other restrictions would end, Peter Hotez told the Baylor College of Medicine to the Houston Chronicle:’ I would recommend holding out. Let’s wait another two weeks. ”

It is in many ways a repetition of the same mistake the US made during the Covid-19 pandemic: if it gets better, the country is too fast to get loose – before distribution is at a truly manageable level. So there are still enough viruses out there as people start collecting again to jump from person to person. It fueled one after another Covid-19 boom in spring, summer, and fall – making the U.S. epidemic one of the deadliest per capita among affluent countries – and it seems to be happening again.

However, it is now particularly grim, as the finish line of this pandemic is finally in sight. This is something that experts have been emphasizing for some time: if we know that the end is only a few months away, we must do everything possible to keep Covid-19 infections until then – to ensure that so many penetrate people to the end. line if possible. But to do so, the public and its leaders must remain vigilant. The US has simply not done so since the beginning of the pandemic.

This is not to say that vaccination will not offer you new possibilities. Based on the current evidence, the vaccines are very effective in protecting the vaccine, and it seems to at least reduce the risk of infection and transmission. The evidence is strong enough that experts believe it is probably good to hang out with other people who have been vaccinated and give them a hug.

But beyond the individual level, society must still maintain restrictions to protect people who have not yet received a vaccine. This means continued physical distance and masking in public settings.

To put it simply: we are almost so far that such restrictions are in the past. But not quite yet.

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