Illinois kicked off February with one of the lowest vaccination rates for COVID-19 in the country, sparking frustration among many about the slow start of the program.
Nearly three weeks later, Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker said the state was making progress thanks to the federal government’s increased supply and the efforts of local health departments:
“Consequently, for the month of February, Illinois was the vaccination leader among the ten most populous states in the country,” Pritzker said in a pre-recorded video address, which aired on February 17.
Did Illinois get as far this month as the governor claimed? We found that Pritzker’s statement was supported by one measure measured over a few days, but an otherwise stain-like vaccination record.
Different criteria, mixed results
There are many measures to measure the progress of states in getting their residents vaccinated against COVID-19. Illinois is performing well this month on some benchmarks, but is still low on others.
Illinois began the country’s 43rd month for total doses administered as it was adapted for the population, according to Our World in Data, a University of Oxford-based project that reviewed vaccination statistics from U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has. By the time Pritzker’s address was broadcast, the state had improved nationally to 34th – and sixth place if only the ten most populous states were taken into account.
The state also performs better on another measure: the proportion of residents who have received at least one dose of the vaccine. On February 17, Illinois took a narrow lead over the other nine populous states and has since taken first, second, or third place in the group every day.
However, the measurement goes hand in hand with another: the proportion of people who have been fully vaccinated. Illinois was the last place among the ten largest states – and still ranked nationally on or near the bottom every day. Experts believe that it is difficult to compare states on this measure, due to differences in state policy on how much vaccine should be earmarked for second doses.
Given these mixed results, we reached out to the governor’s office to find out what Pritzker was referring to when he said Illinois is the “vaccination leader” among major states this month.
Jordan Abudayyeh, spokesman for Pritzker, said Illinois per capita was the largest population state in vaccinations administered in February – and did so “for the vast majority” of the month.
Experts said it was reasonable to compare states based on the total doses administered and adjusted for the population. However, they were divided on whether it makes sense to focus on a few weeks in February.
Hemi Tewarson, a senior fellow at the Duke-Margolis Center for Health Policy, said the February snapshot could be helpful in showing recent improvement after a sluggish start due to issues outside state control, such as delays with the federal pharmacy partnership program which was created to vaccinate. those in nursing homes.
“If they started slowly in December or early January, it’s hard to catch up,” she said.
Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, said that while data from month to month is important for measuring a state’s progress internally, it is not as useful to make comparisons because it is not a complete picture of a state’s vaccination of vaccines.
Either way, according to Pritzker’s metric Illinois, the lead among large states was on the total doses administered per capita in February, just a few days of the month, based on our analysis of CDC figures compiled by Our World in Data has been cataloged.
In support of Pritzker’s claim, Abudayyeh sent us a screenshot of a spreadsheet containing figures she said had taken the CDC’s COVID-19 vaccination track governor’s office. The spreadsheet compares how many doses were administered from 31 January to 11 February per 100,000 inhabitants in the ten most populous states.
These numbers could not be verified directly because the CDC’s tracker only provides a current cumulative total on each day.
To check the governor’s figures, we turned again to Our World in Data, which makes the previous days’ CDC scores available for users to download. These numbers correspond to the analysis of the governor.
From day to day, however, Illinois claimed first place three times out of the first 11 days of the month, almost the “vast majority” of February as Pritzker’s spokesman claims. The state’s lead was slim, and by the time the governor’s address was broadcast, Illinois had fallen back to second place behind Florida.
Priztker’s claim was therefore accurate from 12 February, the last day of his office’s analysis. It was not accurate when his speech was first broadcast five days later.
Our verdict
Pritzker said that “for the month of February, Illinois was the vaccination leader among the ten most populous states in the country.”
There are many different ways to measure how countries compare when it comes to vaccinating residents against COVID-19. On some, Illinois is high and on others low. Pritzker’s office pointed to one very specific criterion: the total doses administered per capita only during February.
The most important issue with Pritzker’s assertion is that Illinois took the lead on the measure only a few days before the governor’s pre-recorded address, and that it had already fallen back to second place.
We rate this claim half true.
HALF TRUE – The statement is partly accurate, but omits important details or takes things out of context.
Click here for more information on the six PolitiFact ratings and how we choose facts to check.