As expected, the first full winter of the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States was brutal, bringing the total death toll the half-million church is approaching. There are also reasons to be hopeful: the daily average of new Covid cases is now decreases in 43 states, and, while it is beginning to falter, the introduction of Covid vaccines is under way. But this is SARS-CoV-2 we’m talking about, and the virus does not care fit into any neat narrative where spring comes and everyone is vaccinated, which eventually leads to the end of the pandemic and everyone is frantically frolicking in a field.
Along with the positive news, there are also reports confirming that infections and deaths are caused by new variants of the virus that causes Covid-19. While this is clearly not a step in the right direction, what exactly does it mean? Will the existing vaccines be effective against these new tribes? And should we do something else to protect ourselves? Here’s what you need to know, along with an outline of some of the most common variants so far.
It is normal for viruses to change
It is common for viruses to mutate over time, and in some cases to form new variants. “That’s why we get a flu shot every year – because the flu virus changes and we have a new variant every year,” he says. Dr. Lothar Michels, professor and chair of the Department of Epidemiology at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health. “We may also need to get the annual Covid shot, in addition to the annual flu shot.”
But not all variants have what it takes to hold on: some form and then disappear, while others persist and spread. Although there is an ever-changing list of new SARS-CoV-2 variants, three came to the fore that scientists, in addition to the original virus, are most concerned – at least for now -.
The original virus
On December 31, 2019, health officials in Wuhan, China, reported a group of pneumonia cases of unknown cause, which they soon identified as a new coronavirus. A few weeks later, the International Committee of Virus Taxonomy (ICTV) announced that the new virus would be called “Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2” – or “SARS-CoV-2” for short – because although different, this virus is genetically related to the coronavirus responsible for the 2003 SARS outbreak.
On the same day, 11 February 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) revealed that the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 would be known as ‘Covid-19’. From 19 February 2021, the WHO reports that there were about 111 million cases of Covid-19, resulting in nearly 2.5 million deaths.
The UK variant
This strain, also known as variant B.1.1.7, originated in the United Kingdom in September 2020 and is now in more than 80 countries. The first confirmed case in the United States came at the end of December and from 21 February 2021, a total of 1,661 cases were reported in 42 states.
Because it has been in circulation for more than five months, scientists know more about this new strain than any of the others, but they still do not understand the full impact of it. The most recent research of Public Health England estimates that the B.1.1.7 variant is between 30 to 50% more transferable – which means that it spreads more efficiently and faster than other strains. Other preliminary data from the UK suggest that the strain has the potential for worse cases of Covid-19, and this may be associated with a 30% increased risk of death compared to other variants – although, as BBC News points out“The evidence is not strong and the data is still uncertain.” The CDC predicts that B.1.1.7 will be the dominant tribe in the United States by next month.
The South African variant
Although variant B.1.351 originated in South Africa, about the same time that the British tribe began to spread, the CDC says that it developed independently. It then became the dominant variant in Zambia in December 2020. Estimates from preliminary data indicate that this strain is 50 percent more transmissible than the previous tribes that had spread in South Africa. At this point there is no evidence that B.1.351 causes a more severe form of Covid-19, according to the CDC.
However, it is known that the B.1.351 variant, like the B.1.1.7 and P.1 variants, contains a mutation in its peak protein that makes the virus more easily attached to human cells than the original iteration of SARS – CoV-2. The first infections caused by the B.1.351 strain in the United States were identified in late January 2021, and from 21 February, a total of 22 cases were reported in 10 states.
The Brazilian variant
In early January 2021, a new virus strain known as P.1 was first identified in travelers from Brazil during Covid routine at an airport in Japan. By the end of the month, it was detected in the United States, and from 21 February, a total of five cases were reported in four states.
There is currently no microbiological or epidemiological evidence of increased transmissibility of P.1 – but the presence of a mutation also found in the varieties of the United Kingdom and South Africa indicates that it is plausible – and there is also no evidence of an increase in severity of the resulting infections. In addition, according to the CDC, this variant contains a set of additional mutations that may affect its ability to be recognized by antibodies. This means that if a person is infected with the original virus, the antibodies they develop may not protect them against this variant.
What does this mean for the Covid-19 vaccines that have already been developed?
After all the drama and excitement of the race for a vaccine, to find out about these new variants that make the world go round – just like the deployment of the vaccine is getting started – may feel a little heartbreaking But this is not the right way to look at it, says Dr Sten Vermund, an infectious epidemiologist and professor at Yale School of Public Health.
Take, for example, recent clinical trial data from Novavax, which indicated that their Covid vaccine candidate is about 85 percent effective against the British variant, and about 50 percent effective against the South African strain. But, as Vermund puts it, an efficiency rate of ’50 percent is great ‘, because that means there is a possibility that there will be enough cross-reacting antibodies to at least stop the severity of the infection in all recipients. ‘So the people who get infected and get sick are not going to get as sick, because it is better to have immunity to an incomparable variant than to have no immunity at all, ‘he explains.
So far both Pfizer-BioNTech and Modern reported that their vaccines are effective against the B.1.1.7 (UK) variant, but did not do so well against the B.1.351 variant (first detected in South Africa). The efficacy of the vaccines against the P.1 variant from Brazil is not yet known. Currently both Pfizer and Modern work on booster shots that, if necessary, can provide increased protection for those who received the original formulation of the vaccine.
For now, Vermund says we should continue to get the currently available vaccines, as planned. “The faster we suppress transmission worldwide, the fewer variants will emerge, and the more effective our current vaccines will be in actual use,” he explains.
How can we protect ourselves against the new variants?
According to Vermund, we need to take the same steps and take precautions recommended by the whole pandemic – except that everyone is really making an effort this time. “People have not necessarily applied the classic public health strategies,” he says. For example, one sees a lot of mask use that is not correct. Many people have their mask under their nose. Many people do not have appropriate masks. ”
Furthermore, Vermund and Michels emphasize the importance of keeping as much space as possible – but at least 6 feet – between yourself and other people. “A lot of people are very relaxed with their six-foot distance,” Vermund explains. ‘And, you know, it was not arbitrary. We came up with the six feet of the actual data. People need to respect that. ”
How worried should we be then about the new variants? “Very worried,” Michels said. ‘But even more concerned about new mutants that could bypass the current vaccinations, because the virus is aimed at evading our immune response. Indeed, the new variant is more aggressive and can make you sicker than the original kind, so I will – and am – even more careful. ”