Government officials know that at least 50 people in New Jersey are infected with a variant of the coronavirus, a species that appears to be more transmissible – and more deadly.
What they do not know is how many other people in New Jersey can spread the more dangerous variant that comes from the UK. State officials would not say how many total virus samples they tested, and a State Health Department spokesman said it was unclear even what percentage of samples were tested for the strain.
The number of health cases is almost certainly not reported, say public health experts, and without knowing how much or how often samples are tested, they are worried it could be a major setback in the fight against COVID-19 .
“It’s really hard at this point to know when we do not have the data to support it,” said Stephanie Silvera, an epidemiologist at Montclair State University. “The numbers are probably higher” than reported, she said.
‘We are opening indoor eateries and increasing capacity, so the variant in the state is worrying. And if we make uncertain, it can quickly become the overriding tension. ‘
To date, the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention reports 1,523 cases of the British variant in 42 US states, but this is probably again a fraction of the actual number of infections. The CDC also reports 21 cases of a South African variant in ten states and five cases of a Brazilian variant in four states.
The New Jersey Department of Health is working with the federal government and local officials to sequence samples of the virus and detect the strains. Spokeswoman Donna Leusner said the DOH focused on the succession of “outbreaks with an atypical transmission pattern, cases with international travel to areas where variants occur and random samples of COVID-19 positive cases” from across the country.
The state is working with the CDC and private laboratories, including Princeton University and Hackensack Meridian Health, to find the variants, Leusner said, adding that the DOH is still trying to expand its efforts.
As these efforts are on the rise, the department has reported more different cases. In a little over two weeks, the number of cases of the British variant has more than tripled, from 11 to 3 February to 50. No cases of the South African or Brazilian variant have yet been reported in NJ
But because the sequencing of coronavirus samples is done by laboratories at the state and federal levels, and in the private sector, Leusner said it is difficult to estimate what percentage of samples are checked daily for variants.
Samuel Wang, a neuroscientist at Princeton University who studied the virus, said it was less important to know the exact number of different cases in the state than to know how often the variants appeared in the samples.
“Yes, of course the real number (cases) is higher,” Wang said. ‘But because it costs extra money and resources to order, it’s good that they did not catch everyone.
‘It is more useful for public health authorities to say what percentage of samples the British variant shows. It will be very helpful to put the threat in perspective. ”
But the state health department also does not know the percentage.
The relatively low number of cases reported in New Jersey and other states is likely to make the situation look better than it really is, said Preeti Malani, chief health officer of the Division of Infectious Diseases and Geriatric Medicine at the University of Pretoria. Michigan.
“We’re a bit like last winter, and said, ‘Oh, we do not have a COVID because we did not look,'” Malani said of tracking the virus variants.
Despite the lack of specific data regarding the detection of the variants in NJ, Malani said that the state’s strategy to track the deviations on how the virus spreads is a smart way to identify different variants.
“If you see people with serious illnesses coming in, you probably want it in order, people with a travel history,” Malani said. ‘If people are vaccinated, if there are fully vaccinated people who come down with COVID, you want to follow it. If something does not make sense, or if there is a group among younger, healthier people. ”
It was inevitable that the coronavirus would change. Virus mutations are common. Think of organic evolution at high speed. In a study published earlier this month, a group of scientists identified seven variants that they believe have mutated in the United States. Yet the CDC pays the most attention to the variants from the UK, South Africa and Brazil.
It is believed that these three variants spread more easily than the tensions that have brought a large part of the world to a standstill in recent years, although the CDC acknowledges that it needs to learn a lot. It is believed that the vaccines now being mass-produced are effective in preventing serious diseases, even in the variants.
But until more people are vaccinated, the variant poses a real threat. British scientists now say that the British variant, called B.1.1.7, is likely to be hospitalized and killed at a higher rate than the dominant strain of the virus.
Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist advising the British government, told The New York Times this month that the British variant appears to have a 40% to 60% increase in the risk of hospitalization and death.
The increased risk has made the detection of the variant all the more important for states and the federal government.
“We know it’s here and we’re going to do more sequencing, but that does not change the fact that we have to follow the same preventative measures, including vaccination,” Leusner said.
Every day there are reports of more coronavirus variants being detected across the country. But health experts say the directions for the public remain the same: wear masks and stay away from people. With the expansion of access to vaccines, the variants can still be kept in check.
“If we can encourage people to stick with it just a little bit longer,” Silvera said. “We’re going into one full year now.
“But if we can get through the next few months and really accelerate the vaccine process, the new variants will not be so much of a worry because we will get it under control.”
Our journalism needs your support. Please sign up today on NJ.com.
Payton Guion can be reached at [email protected].
Tell us your coronavirus story or send us a tip here.