With cases of coronavirus in late summer, experts warned of the possibility of a so-called ‘second mice’, which according to them would have overwhelmed hospital systems through COVID-19 and the influx of flu patients, but the upswing never came. In fact, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that flu activity in the US is ‘lower than usual for this time of year’, which is usually the peak of illness.
Since October 1, 2020, or at the beginning of the flu season, there have been 165 laboratory-confirmed flu-related hospitalizations in the US. According to the CDC, not only is it below average for this point in the season, it is the lowest rate seen since data collection began in 2005.
Why did the flu virus take a back seat to coronavirus? Experts believe it is a mix of factors, but mitigation measures put in place to stop the spread of COVID-19 have probably played a major role.
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“The same phenomenon was found in the Southern Hemisphere last winter (opposite months of us) last year and was presumably caused by the ‘non-pharmaceutical interventions’ adopted to prevent the spread of COVID-19 – masks, shelter and social distance, regular hand washing and avoiding indoor crowds, “said dr. Henry Miller, a former FDA official and currently a senior fellow in health studies at the Pacific Research Institute, told Fox News.
School closures probably also played a role, as early research suggests that children transmit the flu virus better than COVID-19, Drs. Abisola Olulade, a GP in California, explains.
Companies for the mitigation of the coronavirus, such as social spread and wearing a mask, probably also contributed to the low spread of influenza virus, experts say
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“The transmission of flu is more difficult than the transmission of coronavirus,” Olulade told Fox News. “Mitigation measures were more limited in their ability to prevent people from becoming COVID.”
Olulade said the impact on the decline in flu cases raises an interesting question as to whether some, such as the use of face masks in public, could remain in force once the pandemic ends.
“I can not imagine the CDC not thinking about this, and I hope it is because it has made such a big difference,” she said.
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Olulade also pointed out that while some may suggest that people did not test for the flu amidst coronavirus, the positivity rate of those who stayed lower than usual was indicative that the virus spread in the community was indeed low, and that it does not matter from which test was performed.
Dr Eric Legome, chairman of emergency medicine at Mount Sinai West and Mount Sinai Morningside, noted that this year there was not only a decrease in flu activity, but also with other common respiratory illnesses. Legome said that a longer incubation period, greater infectivity and no previous level of immunity to coronavirus probably also contributed to the increase in cases while other diseases have low activity.
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“It’s hard to predict what’s going to happen next year with flu and other seasonal viruses (or one year, and next year especially hard),” Legome told Fox News. “The current interventions such as masking, etc. may be necessary for a long time. It may prolong the reduction of respiratory diseases. This is theoretical, but once these measures are reduced or eliminated, there can be a significant increase in historical numbers. “That is, we can see extremely severe colds and flu seasons due to factors such as the increased susceptibility to some of these diseases.”
Miller said the strength of the flu virus next year boils down to probabilities and that it is impossible to predict whether a dangerous mutant – one that causes new infections – will appear. The vaccine being developed for next year may also play a role over the course of the season, but it can be difficult to come up with the right formula given the low number of strains that have spread this season.
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“We are determining the vaccination strain according to what is happening in the Southern Hemisphere,” Olulade continued. “If we do not have enough information, are we going to choose the right strain in the vaccine? We also do not want to hesitate about the vaccine – even if it is not completely protective, it decreases [the] strength of the virus. ‘