Why rising oil and copper prices ‘completely detached from reality’, says Commerzbank

The GameStop GME,
-7.21%
madness may have cooled off, but attention will turn to later on Thursday as lawmakers will have to roster key players.

A number of key players will face the House Financial Services Committee this afternoon following the setback against online trading platform Robinhood and other brokers’ decisions to temporarily restrict trading in some so-called meme shares, such as the video game retailer, last month.

The sell-off of the bond market and rising treasury yields also remain in focus, confirming optimism about the COVID-19 recovery, but also raising concerns that inflation may rise. The yield on the standard ten-year treasury TMUBMUSD10Y,
1,303%
jumped 38 basis points this year. Yields fell early Thursday ahead of weekly U.S. data on jobless claims later in the day.

Oil prices BRN00,
+ 0.58%
continued higher, after US prices CL.1,
+ 0.52%
settled above $ 60 on Wednesday as refineries in Texas closed and production was halted.

In us call of the day, Commerzbank analysts said commodities were “completely detached from reality”, noting that oil prices in particular were being moved by news that would have led to lower prices. The recent upswing in metal prices has also started to look “excessive”, they added.

“Nothing seems to be stopping the rise in oil prices at the moment,” said Carsten Fritsch, an energy analyst, noting that Brent had made a profit in 14 of the past 15 trading days and climbed about $ 10 in three weeks. A number of developments are being ignored, he said, including reports that higher prices have prompted the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to gradually increase oil supplies from April, and the likelihood that Saudi Arabia will not extend its voluntary production cuts by the end of March.

“This selective perception is characteristic of markets in excessive phases,” Fritsch added. “Normally, oil prices should have responded to such news by falling significantly, as it is likely to reach the market up to 1.5 million extra crude oil per day in April,” he said.

This detachment from reality is also present when it comes to buyer HG00,
+ 2.21%,
which reached its highest level since Thursday 2012 on Thursday, as well as nickel and aluminum, which also reached multi-year highs, Commerzbank analysts said – mainly in the hope of a significant global economic recovery. The analysts noted that Chinese traders returned to the markets after a week-long holiday, which caused prices to rise higher.

However, analysts of precious metals and industrial metals, Daniel Briesemann, said there was no new data that has seen a “pronounced rise” in metal prices in recent weeks. “In our opinion, metal prices are currently being driven by speculation to a large extent, and the upswing is starting to look excessive. From a technical perspective, copper and aluminum are currently being repurchased, measured by the relative strength index, ‘he said in a note.

Goue GC00,
+ 0.67%,
which fell below the key $ 1,800 per ounce earlier this week amid rising bond yields and dollar strength, is also detached from reality, but in the opposite way, Fritsch said.

The tweet

Is DoubleLine Capital billionaire “Bond King” Jeffrey Gundlach about to turn into a bitcoin BTCUSD,
-1.30%
trailer?

The markets

US futures contract YM00,
-0.38%

ES00,
-0.44%

NQ00,
-0.79%
to the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA lowered before the open,
+ 0.29%
closed at a record high on Wednesday. European equities were lower in early trading as investors consumed mixed corporate earnings. Technology stocks sent Asian markets down overnight.

The buzz

Tilray TLRY,
-9.01%
reduced losses and increased revenues in the last three months of 2020, as it was willing to merge with fellow Canadian marijuana company Aphria APHA,
-5.15%.
Shares in Tilray rose more than 8% in market trading.

Walmart WMT,
+ 1.06%
announced a new $ 20 billion repurchase plan because the retailer’s revenue forecasts failed.

Google GOOG,
+ 0.30%
entered into transactions in Australia to pay for journalism, while Facebook FB,
-0.15%
promised to limit news sharing as Australian lawmakers consider forcing digital giants into payment deals.

Mining stocks rose on Thursday as copper futures rose to the highest level since April 2012. Rio Tinto RIO,
+ 1.89%,
Antofagasta ANTO,
+ 1.05%,
and BHP BHP,
+ 1.54%
was one of the biggest ascenders.

Apple AAPL,
-1.76%
the stock fell to a one-month low on Wednesday, after the two biggest shareholders of the technology giant said they had decorated their interests.

Airbus AIR,
-2.56%
the share fell by more than 3% as the aircraft maker’s lead in 2021 disappoints investors. The company has said it will not deliver more aircraft in 2021 than the 566 it delivered in 2020.

Random reading

“I was invited for a COVID-19 vaccine because the National Health Service thought I was 6 cm tall.”

Man finds a washed-out sea mine on the beach and takes it home to use as a footstool.

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