Here’s how Tilray, Sundial and other pot supplies stack up

While marijuana stocks traded regularly due to sentiment, many of these stocks had varying degrees of success. Some investors are looking at exchange traded funds to bet on a wider basket of pot stocks. The

ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF

(MJ), which was exposed to marijuana ventures, fell 24% on Thursday, almost level again at the beginning of the week. But the ETF does not include U.S. multistate operators or MSOs, which must list in the U.S. without a counter because they sell a product where it is federally illegal. The

Advisorshares Pure Cannabis ETF share

(YOLO) does contain US MSOs.

Here are some of the biggest individual stocks and what analysts are predicting. This is not a complete list, as there are over a hundred public shares with some ties to the marijuana business.

Tilray (TLRY) and Aphria (APHA)

Tilray

and Aphria announced a merger in December. Aphria CEO Irwin Simon expects the deal to close in the first half of this year. An investor would receive approximately 0.84 shares of the joint Tilray for every Aphria share they own. Aphria has a recent market capitalization of $ 8.3 billion, compared to Tilray at $ 10.1 billion.

According to data from S3 Partners, Tilray made the shares available this year with a short-term shortfall of approximately 48% of the shares. It has declined to a recent 23%. Aphria’s short stake is around 7.4% of the shares available for trading, up from 16% at the beginning of the year. When investors sell a stock price, they sell a borrowed stock in the hope that they can get it back by buying the stock at a lower price. When a bunch of short sellers quickly try to cover and prevent further losses, it can increase stocks.

For Aphria, analysts expect the company to end fiscal 2021 in May with annual sales of $ 534.8 million. They expect fiscal sales to grow to $ 710.3 million in 2022. On the other hand, Tilray ended its latest financial year in December. Analysts expect the company to report annual sales of $ 208 million and grow to $ 277.8 million in the current year. The merger will, of course, cloud any far-reaching estimates.

According to FactSet, the average analysis rating on Tilray is a Hold’s, although the average price target is only $ 12.20. The average rating on Aphria is overweight, but the average price target is $ 12.60.

Sundial Growers (SNDL)

Sundial, which once traded more than $ 11, has fallen to penny stock status. In February last year, the core management team resigned. The company experienced problems rejecting half a ton of marijuana by a customer due to poor quality, MarketWatch reports. Earlier this month, Sundial announced a capital increase that caused shares to rise lower.

The stock fell this month amid retailers’ interest, up 403% from a year earlier. Its market value is at $ 4.3 billion after Thursday’s retreat. Analysts expect sales to reach $ 53.1 million for the full year 2020. Consensus estimates amount to $ 62.6 million in 2021.

Aurora Cannabis (ACB)

Aurora Cannabis

was previously one of the most owned shares in Robinhood. But the company struggled for several quarters to make positive adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization. A new CEO and some major cost cuts helped, but analysts did not win. None of the 17 analysts listed by FactSet has a buy rating, while four analysts recently rated it as a sale. The average target price of $ 9.07 is below recent levels.

The company has a market capitalization of $ 3.7 billion. Analysts do not predict a profitable financial year in the next few years. According to the consensus estimate, the net loss is $ 1.16 per share for the financial year ending June, according to FactSet. In terms of sales, analysts predict that the company will reach $ 227.4 million in fiscal 2021, which ends in June. They predict that fiscal sales will rise to $ 303.3 million in 2022.

Roof growth (CGC)

Roof growth

has a recent market capitalization of $ 19.7 billion. Brouer

Constellation Brands

(STZ) has a controlling interest in Canopy. The producer also has an agreement with Acreage Holdings that will allow it to enter the US marijuana market, but the merger is caused by regulatory changes that make it possible.

The company has a market value of approximately $ 19.7 billion. Analysts expect sales of $ 441.4 million for the 2021 financial year, which ends in March. They predict it will grow to $ 639.9 million in fiscal 2022.

Cronos Group (CRON)

Cronos Group

was one of the least profitable Canadian cannabis companies in 2019, and investors expect it to continue in 2020, with estimates requiring earnings of 3 cents per share. However, consensus estimates expect a net loss of 24 cents per share in fiscal 2021.

The company received $ 1.8 billion from the tobacco giant

Altria Group

(MO) in 2018 for a 45% stake. Unlike competitors, the company was conservative with its war chest. It had another $ 1.3 billion in cash and short-term investments at the end of September. On the other hand, analysts have predicted that sales would reach only $ 43.8 million in 2020, and they expect it to grow to $ 86.9 million in 2021.

US multistate operators

Although the recent rush to pot supplies was spurred by a shift in political winds in U.S. producers selling marijuana there, their Canadian counterparts have actually lagged behind in recent months. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Pablo Zuanic says Barron’s he believes that “the best American MSOs are considered attractive in the long run, even though they will get a share of the Canadian fundraiser.”

Big American names include

Curaleaf Holdings

(CURLF),

Green Thumb Industries

(GTBIF),

Cresco Labs

(CRLBF), and

Delay cannabis

(TCNNF). Zuanic has an overweight rating on these stocks, while being neutral on most of the big Canadian names. He projects US cannabis market sales of $ 22.1 billion in 2021, $ 28 billion in 2022 and $ 49 billion by 2025.

Write to Connor Smith at [email protected]