Elon Musk wants to save taxpayers ten billion dollars by sending rockets cheaper.
For the past few years he has been working on the problem. First he plays around with a “Grasshopper” rocket to see if it is possible to launch a part of a rocket and then send it back safely. SpaceX then grew Grasshopper into the reusable Falcon 9 rockets that became a mainstay of the space launch, landing some on dry land and others at sea. Then comes the invention of recyclable and reusable space capsules, and finally ships equipped with giant nets, to catch falling rockets before they fall into the sea.
Step by step, Musk has learned to recover the bulk of every rocket launched, saving money by not having to build more and more parts and using them over and over again.
But he’s not done yet. Now he’s building a rocket 100% reusable. And it’s almost ready for the best time.
Image source: Elon Musk.
The first and last flight of Starship SN9
On Tuesday, February 2, SpaceX performed its second ever high-altitude flight test for a new 100% reusable rocket – the Starship. In the course of 6 minutes and 26 exciting seconds, Starship model “SN9” flew 10 kilometers into the air, turned sideways, sank 10 kilometers, turned again to try a vertical landing – and could not hold the landing.
SN9 descended too fast and touched more obliquely than vertically and burst into a flame ball. In doing so, it duplicates the fate of its predecessor prototype, the SN8, which actually got closer to landing in its test flight on December 9th.
Why did the SN9 fail? How did it look like it worked worse as the SN8? See for yourself:
Live feed of Starship SN9 flight test → https://t.co/Hs5C53qBxb https://t.co/ioM0D5J91I
– SpaceX (@SpaceX) 2 February 2021
First, the SN9 engines waited three seconds longer to burn again on the landing, than the SN8 did two months ago. This makes matters worse, says SpaceX, “one Raptor engine did not re-ignite at all, causing SN9 to land at high speed” (and from the outside).
If you do not succeed initially (and second), do you give up?
In short, SpaceX adapted its landing process for the SN9, but a mechanical problem prevented this new approach from working – this time. The good news is that SpaceX already has “a clear solution” to the problem (to have three engines burn in the landing instead of two).
That said, the shipwreck has a clear solution. My biggest concern is achieving a good payload to a fast and fully reusable track, without which we will be confined to earth forever.
– Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 5 February 2021
It was foolish of us not to turn on 3 engines and turn off 1 immediately as 2 are needed to land
– Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 4, 2021
Within hours of the SN9 inflating, SpaceX had already figured out how to do better next time. And there will definitely be a next time – maybe sooner than you think.
Consider: the SN8 completed its test flight on 9 December 2020. Less than two months later, SpaceX was ready to try again with the SN9. And in the photo above, you may have noticed that SpaceX has already set up a third Starship rocket his turn to try – the SN10. (And an SN11 is under construction as we speak.)
What happens next?
In total, SpaceX expects to go through as many as twenty SN prototypes in quick succession before finally equipping one with a full complement of six Raptor engines (these test versions use only three) and sending them to orbit. So, even with the SN9 in forge, it implies that the company is almost halfway through its testing.
With the pace of test launches accelerating, it looks like we may see a Starship in orbit before it’s out this year.
What happens then?
At that point, SpaceX will be the only company on earth to have a fully recyclable, fully reusable space rocket – and not only that, but also the largest space rocket in the world, which can lift more than 100 tons of cargo onto orbit.
I do not think it is too exaggerated to say that the world will change as soon as it happens.
Suddenly, SpaceX will own a rocket that, once built, needs little more than refilling before it can be reused over and over again, dropping the cost of space launch to the cost of filling the tank. Most everyone tries compete well with SpaceX – and I’m thinking of it in particular Boeing and Lockheed Martin and their United Launch Alliance joint venture here – will continue to use more expensively consumable rockets. That, or they are rushing to overtake SpaceX, as Arianespace in Europe, Linkspace in China and Roscosmos in Russia do.
And even those rockets will be a generation behind SpaceX, but only partially reusable (similar to the Falcon 9).
While its competitors are catching up with the latest generation of reusable rockets, SpaceX can meanwhile start phasing out its own Falcon 9s and Falcon Heavies – and the landing pads, hood catchers and all the other infrastructure needed to recapture its rocket parts. Its overheads will drop, the cost of doing business will drop, and SpaceX will be too cheap for every business it competes with and will dominate the space industry for years to come.
Game, set and match: SpaceX.