- Elon Musk’s timeline for landing SpaceX humans on Mars has faltered over the years.
- On Sunday, he said 2026 would be the year to send a mission to Mars. In 2017, he said 2024.
- Experts in the space industry believe that SpaceX will reach Mars, but not as soon as it hopes.
- Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.
Elon Musk is still confident that 2026 will be the year his space company SpaceX lands humans on Mars, where he hopes to build a human settlement.
Musk said in a comprehensive interview with the audio-only audio house app on Sunday that it would take ‘five and a half years’ before a mission from SpaceX’s Starship rocket could land on the Red Planet.
“The most important thing is that we establish Mars as a self-sustaining civilization,” he said.
But Musk’s timeline for reaching Mars has faltered over the past few years. The billionaire said in 2017 his ‘aspiring’ timeline was that SpaceX should send cargo ships to Mars in 2022, followed by a mission two years later.
In October, Musk said the space company had a ‘fighting chance’ of sending an unmanned Starship rocket to Mars in 2024 – two years later than he had previously hoped. He confirmed his ambition in December, saying he “has a lot of confidence” that SpaceX will send an unmanned rocket to the planet in 2024, followed by a mission in 2026.
With another five and a half years, experts say, SpaceX can wait a few more years to reach its goal.
Greg Autry, an expert on the commercial aerospace industry, told Insider he thinks Musk will be coming to Mars on his own or with NASA in 2029 or 2031. The window depends on when the Earth is in line with Mars, which is every 26 months. But Autry warned that space projects are challenging and seldom timely – Musk’s goal is no exception.
“It’s a matter of finances and will. Elon has both,” he said.
All of its projects, from Tesla to SpaceX to the Boring Company, contain extremely ambitious time frames and, according to Autry, usually take much longer than expected. “It may not diminish the power of setting an aggressive date, nor the splendor of what he ultimately achieves,” he said.
Musk said in January 2020 that he plans to send 1 million people to Mars by 2050. It involves building 1,000 Starship rockets over ten years – that’s 100 Starships each year – and launching an average of three Starships a day. “There will be a lot of work on Mars!” he added.
SpaceX on Tuesday launched a prototype of its Starship rocket 10 km above Boca Chica, Texas, but it exploded during a landing attempt. This is the second time a Starship rocket has been launched and burst into flames. The first time was in December.
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Despite testing the Starship rocket, Autry pointed out that the booster, the life support system, the relocation system and the ability to refuel on Mars have not yet been tested – and some have not even been built. This means that it will probably take more time to build the technology beyond Starship to support a civilization on Mars.
“There’s a lot of work out there that is overshadowed by the dramatic tests of the landing system,” Autry said.
Musk’s ambitious targets stem from a mixture of motivational charisma, planning error and ‘unable to get things done’, Autry said.
“If he’s thinking about how long it’s going to take to build a rocket, he’s perhaps guilty of proposing 5,000 Elon Musks in the job at SpaceX and more of it at his suppliers and in government offices, he should have his project license or finance, “Autry said, adding that it is not realistic.
Kevin J DeBruin, a former NASA rocket scientist, said Insider Musk has only three launch opportunities left due to the planets’ alignment to do tests and ensure everything goes perfectly. If the launches, new technology, system tests and landings are on schedule and Musk has the cash flow to support it, DeBruin said SpaceX could possibly come to Mars by 2026.
However, there are concerns about the mass needed to land on Mars, DeBruin said.
Six times more mass is needed than we already have, he said. “We need new landing technology to land more mass on the surface of Mars so people can live, work and then leave the surface to get home.”
Biological issues may also come up. DeBruin said that the longest one has ever been in space is just less than a year, but the Mars journey will take much longer. “We will see more deterioration of the human body,” he said.
Steve Nutt, professor of materials science and aerospace engineering at the University of Southern California, told Insider that Musk deliberately makes bold predictions to ‘inspire his workforce to think big’.
“One could argue that this is an effective strategy, and that it is less important that the timeline is accurate than that it is inspiring,” Nutt said.
SpaceX’s goal to reach Mars is ‘something NASA has had to do for a long time’, Nutt said. As the space agency has lost its vision after the big moonwalk and is limited by politics, SpaceX could fill the void, he said.