UN-sponsored talks in Geneva have yielded a new interim government for Libya, aimed at holding national elections later this year.
This is the first time the country has had a united leadership in four years, and the new government will face serious challenges, as well as some external actors.
Within Libya, there is a mixture of cynicism and hope that the country could possibly put years of sporadic fighting and divided institutions behind it. There has been a fragile ceasefire since October, but the country remains full of mercenaries and armed forces.
On Friday, the 75-strong Libyan dialogue forum elected Abdul Hamid Dbeibah as prime minister, and Mohamed al-Manfi from the east as head of a three-strong presidential council. Musa al-Koni, as the deputy representing the south of the country, and Abdullah al-Lafi complete the council.
The aim was to ensure that the three regions of Libya are represented in government in the run – up to the election. The victorious candidate won 39 of the 70 votes in the last round and defeated an opponent by five votes.
UN special envoy Stephanie Williams told delegates: “The decision you made today will grow in the collective memory of the Libyan people over time.”
In a sign that some of the losers could accept their fate, Fathi Bashagha, the interior minister of western Libya, who has been widely nominated for the post of prime minister, congratulated the victors.
Bashagha, who is close to the Muslim Brotherhood and from the coastal town of Misrata, worked hard to garner international support, but teamed up with Aguila Saleh from the east of the country for the leadership.
Saleh is widely insulted in the west for his role in supporting General Khalifa Haftar in the 16-month siege of the capital, Tripoli. At the dialogue forum, hustings Saleh shocked many delegates by largely rejecting the attack that claimed more than 1,000 lives and saying it was time to turn the page.
Wolfram Lacher, a researcher in the Middle East at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said: ‘The most important heavyweights emerged as losers from this process. There will be a sigh of relief among many in western Libya who have opposed a purely opportunistic agreement with Aguila and Haftar, but this means that the new executive will have very little in the east. ”
Former Libyan ambassador to Libya Peter Millett said: ‘This is not the result most observers have expected. The combination of Aguila Saleh as head of the presidential council and Fathi Bashagha as prime minister was the forerunner and gained the support of key external players such as Egypt.
‘The Dbeibah family is controversial and has been involved in allegations of corruption. There are already voices in the east calling for war. Haftar’s intentions are also unclear. The most important thing now is that this transitional government is approved, both locally and internationally. ”
In general, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Russia have the most in the east of the country, while Turkey is the dominant external player in the west. Turkey supported Bashagha.
The head of the new government faces many potential pitfalls. He must first submit his new government and work program within 21 days for approval to the House of Representatives, the Libyan parliament.
If rejected, the issue returns to the dialogue forum, a body chosen primarily by Williams. There are also doubts whether the ceasefire will hold, let alone foreign troops leaving the country.
Many people will be disappointed because the process did not bring about a new generation of political leaders, but ultimately the recovery of many of the figures who were incapable of bridging the local divisions that dominate the country.