Dr. Michele Carbone, of the University of Hawaii Cancer Center and Department of Pathology, and an international team of colleagues recently wrote an article – a kind of summary of the latest research – for the “Journal of Thoracic Oncology” that provides reliable, easy-to-understand information on COVID-19, which is important and can not be easily ascertained in the circus atmosphere of our news media.
Here are some highlights:
First, the correct terminology: the name of the new coronavirus is ‘SARS-CoV-2’, and it causes a disease called ‘COVID-19’ in about 30 percent of people who are infected.
Masks and social removal help prevent infection, but the only way to make sure you do not get the virus is to stay home and not have visitors. It’s that simple.
But it would require us to sacrifice our normal life routines, such as spending time with friends and family, going to restaurants and shopping malls, doing our work in a social environment with colleagues – the things that determine our lives.
Is it worth it? How to manage the risk?
Infections occur almost exclusively in closed environments
The virus floats like aerosol in the air. Open the windows and the risk of infection drops drastically, according to Carbone and his colleagues.
The busier the environment, the greater the risk of infection – for example, the risk is very high in a pressure bus with air conditioning and closed windows. However, the busy environment of a modern aircraft is relatively safer, they say – because the air in the cabin is filtered and it is completely exchanged with the air outside every 2 to 3 minutes.
Since we contract with closed windows during cold winter months, the risk of infection is greater and probably then.
Unintended consequences
We are currently focusing our attention and resources on the effort to contain SARS-CoV-2 infections, which in turn the efforts to prevent, treat and treat cancer and other critical illnesses. It can cost many lives.
Carbone and his colleagues note that the National Cancer Institute (NCI) estimated that it would be responsible for about 10,000 additional deaths from colon and breast cancer because early cancer screening for these diseases was largely suspended.
In addition, NCI’s estimate did not take into account other cancers, and it was assumed that by January 2021 everyone would be normal again – which did not happen. The actual number of collateral deaths can be much higher.
Misleading statistics
According to Carbone and his colleagues, about 70 percent of SARS-CoV-2 infections are asymptomatic – but they are mainly targeted at people who have symptoms; consequently, we underestimate the extent of infections.
We also overestimate the deaths caused by COVID-19, they say. Anyone who dies who tested positive for COVID-19 is considered a victim of the virus. We do not determine if the virus was the leading cause of death.
Three out of four seriously ill patients are men, and most deaths occur in elderly people with conditions that already exist. COVID-19 deaths under the age of 40 without conditions are very rare.
Vaccines
Three vaccines have recently become available.
Astra-Zeneca has manufactured the “Oxford” vaccine, which is currently only distributed in the United Kingdom.
Pfizer and Moderna each produced an RNA vaccine. These vaccines are available in the US and Europe. RNA vaccines use new technology that has not been applied to mass vaccinations before.
Antibodies are the proteins produced by the immune system that protect us from infection. About 95 percent of those vaccinated have developed IgG antibodies to protect them from the virus.
These vaccines have been tested primarily on healthy adults under 60 years of age. The few older people who received the vaccines produced fewer IgG antibodies.
The vaccines have not been tested on children.
These vaccines will not stop the spread of COVID-19
IgG antibodies circulate in our blood and protect us from a systemic infection, ie against viruses that spread in our body and make us sick.
Another type of antibody, called “IgA”, protects the mucous membranes of the body, such as the nose, pharynx and intestines.
To date, no clinical trials have been performed on vaccines that produce IgA antibodies. The vaccines being tested yield only IgG antibodies.
This means that the SARS-CoV-2 virus can still infect the mucosal surfaces of vaccines.
This should not be a problem for people who are vaccinated. The IgG antibodies of their vaccinations should prevent the virus from spreading in their bodies, but viruses that grow on the mucosal surfaces in their bodies can spread to other people.
However, infected people produce both IgA and IgG antibodies, so once they have recovered from the infection, they are “safe”. Re-infections are extremely uncommon.
When more than 60 percent of the population has antibodies that protect them against the virus, the spread of viruses will decrease because the virus cannot easily find susceptible targets. This is called ‘herd immunity’.
No one knows how long herd immunity will last, but for SARS, which is caused by a closely related virus, it takes several years.
Children
According to Carbone and his colleagues, the main reason – or only reason – is to vaccinate children. Children – except children with serious illnesses or genetic conditions – usually do not become ill with COVID-19.
COVID-19 vaccinations cause pain, fever and headaches that last a few days in most adults. We do not know what the side effects would be in children.
Will people vaccinate their children by knowing these things?
When will it end?
The fact that the vaccines currently being tested will not produce IgA antibodies is not a big problem if everyone is vaccinated, but it is unlikely to happen.
Therefore, these vaccines will not get rid of the virus in the immediate future.
SARS-CoV-2 spreads rapidly. Ten to 20 percent of tests worldwide appear to be positive.
Therefore, according to Carbone and his colleagues, a combination of vaccinations and infections should yield herd immunity soon, possibly by June, when COVID-19 will decrease and – hopefully – disappear shortly thereafter.
Meanwhile, more effective treatments are being developed; therefore, the mortality rate of COVID-19 should decrease in the coming months.
Nolan Rappaport was set out for three years at the House Legal Committee as an expert immigration law expert. He then served for four years as an immigration advocate for the Subcommittee on Immigration, Border Security and Claims. Before working on the Judiciary Committee, he made decisions for the Immigration Council for 20 years. Follow his blog by https://nolanrappaport.blogspot.com.