In one of the most confusing and worrying developments in the pandemic, scientists rush to explain what is happening in Manaus, Brazil, a city of 2.2 million on the edge of the country’s rainforest, which is experiencing a second explosive outbreak, although the first one was so severe that it presumably produced herd immunity.
As the situation in Manaus deepens, and once again overwhelms the city’s health system, researchers from Brazil and the United Kingdom said yesterday that four possibilities could explain the recent dramatic revival, including SARS-CoV-2 viruses originating in Brazil has. They did their analysis yesterday in The Lancet.
The city’s outbreak last spring stunned the world with images of corpses in the streets, people buried in cardboard roofs, and mass graves at local cemeteries. Seroprevalence studies during the summer estimated that 76% of Manaus’ residents were infected, above the basic immunity threshold of 67%.
However, a new boom that began in December has once again taken over the health care system, urging other countries to help by sending oxygen supplies.
Doctors on the front lines say the second boom has overwhelmed hospitals much faster than the first outbreak and that patients arrive at hospitals sicker, causing some to suspect that a new variant is circulating that is not only more transmissible, it could also be more deadly be. , According to the Washington Post. Noaldo Lucena, managing director, a specialist in infectious diseases at the doctor Heitor Vieira Dourado in Manaus, told the Post. “It’s not a feeling. That’s a fact. ‘
A false sense of security, with some government officials underestimating the threat and entering the Christmas holidays, may have also caught Manaus off guard when diseases began to rise again in December, according to the Post.
In the Lancet report, experts said there could be four factors at play, some of which may be related. First, scientists would have overestimated the rate of attack for the first surge, and infections could be below the herd immunity threshold. Second, immunity in people infected in the first wave may decline by December, which they say will not fully explain the revival.
Another factor may be the spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants, some of which originated in Brazil, evading the immune response of earlier infection with the original virus. And as a fourth possibility, the variants circulating in the second wave may be more transmissible than the virus that fueled the first surge.
The authors refer to the discovery of the P.1 variant in Manaus, which began appearing with regular detection in December. Although little is known about the variant, it shares mutations with variants from the United Kingdom and South Africa that may make it more transmissible.
PAHO proposes that P.1 fuel Manaus boom
The latest epidemiological update from the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) has revealed more details about local transmission of P.1 in Manaus, which is apparently based on a sequence analysis of data by a team based on the Center for Arbovirus Discovery , Diagnostics, Genomics, and Epidemiology (CADDE) Genomic Network and posted January 12 at Virological.org.
The researchers wrote that the P.1 variant was only detected in Manaus after November, and that it made up 52.2% of the genotyped samples in December. In January, the share rose to 85.4%. They also saw an increase in the P.2 variant in December, which was 25.4% but has since fallen to 6% in January.
The group stressed that the findings are preliminary, and that P.1 appears to be driving local distribution in Manaus, although P.2 and other sex lines may still be in circulation.
PAHO said in a statement today about variants being distributed in America that mutations are expected. It highlights its advice to countries to continue strengthening their COVID-19 measures and monitoring the virus.
On the variant spread in Manaus and the wider Amazon region, Sylvain Aldighieri, managing director, the group’s incident manager, suggested that the causal link with increased hospitalizations in Manaus be proposed. ‘But it is still too early to conclude on the basis of the connection between the origin of the variant and the recent dynamics of the transfer. “
Vietnam reports new outbreaks
In its first local affairs in almost two months and in its largest one-day total, Vietnam reported 84 new cases in two northern provinces, Hai Duong and Quang Ninh, yesterday, according to Reuters. State media said cases were also detected in Bac Ninh province and in Hai Phong, a port city.
Vietnam is one of the countries that has received praise for keeping COVID-19 cases and deaths at very low levels.
The developments have sparked a spate of urgent response actions, including mass tests in the affected areas, the halting of international flights and the ban on events ahead of the Moon New Year.
According to the government, some of the cases may be related to the B117 variant that was first detected in the UK New York Times.
Thinning European affairs, WHO’s mission in China
In other international headlines:
- Thirty European countries, some under lock and key, have reported declines in COVID-19 cases over the past two weeks, but several schools, hospitals and nursing homes have reported outbreaks related to the variant virus, Hans Henri Kluge, managing director, MPH, who European Regional Office of the World Health Organization (WHO) said today. He said the region was facing a “pandemic paradox”, with vaccines offering new hope but variants posing a serious threat.
- Portugal today extended its nationwide exclusion and announced banned international travel, with hospitals overwhelmed, according to Reuters. The country currently has the highest 7-day per capita averages in the world for cases and deaths, and Germany has sent medics to help.
- The WHO’s joint mission in China to investigate the animal source of SARS-CoV-2 has ended its 2-week quarantine in Wuhan and, according to Reuters, will begin its personal activities.
- According to the Johns Hopkins online dashboard, the world today is 101 million and there are currently 101,253,267 cases with 2,184,718 deaths.