The new tribes are already here and circulating.
The highly contagious variant of the coronavirus in the United Kingdom has been found in New Jersey and in more than 20 other states. The Brazilian tribe has now been found in Minnesota. And experts fear that the South African mutation may soon break out.
The variant still applies to health officials, who are concerned that the virus, which mutates rapidly, could make the Pfizer / BioNTech and Moderna vaccines less effective.
“The new strains that are arriving are of concern, especially if they are more contagious and / or the vaccines appear to be less effective,” said Dr. David Cennimo, an infectious disease expert at Rutgers New Jersey Medical School.
Coronavirus sequences remain limited across the country, so it is unclear how common the new strains are in the U.S., experts say.
The British variant was found in New Jersey long after it was presumably here, following cases in New York, Pennsylvania and other nearby states. The Garden State now has eight cases, including one dead, officials announced Wednesday.
And on Monday, health officials discovered the Brazilian tribe in Minnesota.
The White House is extending travel bans on Europe and Brazil and will add South Africa. But even if travel bans are effective, it is unlikely to completely disperse tensions in the US, experts say.
And homemade tribes have already sprung up in California and Ohio.
‘Do I feel that border restrictions will occur? [spread] 100%? … The chance is no, ”said dr. Reynold Panettieri, vice-chancellor for translational medicine and science at Rutgers University, said. ‘However, it is a step in the right direction to prevent large amounts of the virus from entering the United States. It’s not going to be a complete stop-gap measure, but it can be beneficial. ”
Mutations were expected. The questions that experts carry at heart are whether the new, highly contagious variant is more lethal and whether it can make coronavirus vaccines less effective.
The first U.S. case of the Brazilian tribe (P.1) involved a Minnesota resident “with a recent travel history to Brazil,” according to the Department of Health. The strain is not only more contagious, but also carries the risk of re-infection due to a set of “mutations that can affect its ability to be recognized by antibodies,” according to the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention.
The British tribe (B.1.1.7) is expected to become the dominant variant in the US by March. It is considered more communicable, and experts now fear it could be more virulent.
“If the latest British data is true that it’s more deadly … it’s another – obviously – problem,” Cennimo said.
And the South African strain (501Y.V2) – which has similarities with the British strain – raises fears that it could make the vaccines less effective. Researchers studying the Moderna vaccine have recently found a six-fold drop in levels of “neutralizing antibodies” against the South African variant, although they “remain above the levels that are expected to be protective”, the pharmaceutical company said. said.
In response, Moderna is testing a possible new booster dose against stress.
The Modern News was sobering and illustrates not only that the virus is adapting faster than previously thought, but also that it can change in ways that can help it evade vaccines that are still spreading in New Jersey and the country.
Further studies are being conducted in laboratories to thoroughly answer these questions – such as whether the new variants can affect the efficacy of the vaccine.
“They are performing scenarios on how a variant can alter the ear protein and make it invisible to the human immune system,” Panettieri said.
Some early data show that the South African variant – under laboratory tests – does affect the effectiveness of the vaccine. But researchers do not even know it before the tension spreads and real-world data can be examined.
“It’s an awkward place to be, but it’s the truth,” Panettieri said. ‘But recent evidence (is) that the ear protein mutates, and it mutates into a portion of the protein that can make the vaccine less effective. We do not yet have clear evidence of that. And so I can say at the end of the day we do not know. But we will know in time. ”
Cennimo expressed similar sentiment, saying only time will tell how the virus strains react among the vaccinated.
Cennimo, like many other experts, says the new strains are changing little to stop the spread of COVID-19: social distancing and wearing masks remain critical components. These measures have effectively slowed the spread of the original strains, and it remains true for any new variants that emerge, he said.
‘For the same moment and for the foreseeable future, it’s the same plan. It is the same mitigation strategy, ”said Cennimo.
But he keeps an eye on the new species and children. Education officials continue to discuss whether all schools should reopen, as children were not the effective spread of the virus that experts initially feared with the onset of the pandemic.
But the British variant has mutated to infect people under 20 better, allowing teens and children to be more effective carriers of the virus, according to some studies. This makes Cennimo wonder how it could affect the reopening of the efforts.
“There was evidence that the virus mutated to better infect children’s lungs, although this has not yet been proven,” Cennimo said. ‘But it would fit anecdotally: you have more infections in children.
‘If so, children will not necessarily be as protected as they used to be, and relatively safe from infection. You must therefore do your risk calculations to determine if schools are right. ”
There could be a scenario in which schools reopen, just as the virus has invented a way to better infect children. That would be a worst case scenario, but not an impossible one.
Cennimo stressed that he was only speculating, but noted that he was still monitoring the new mutations and their impact on children.
So do other experts.
“If there’s anything really different about it really becoming a game changer, then we’ll have to respond to it,” Cennimo said. “But we do not really see it yet.”
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Spencer Kent can be reached at [email protected].