There is evidence that a new coronavirus variant first identified in the south-east of England carries a higher risk of death than the original strain, the British chief scientific adviser said on Friday – although he stressed that the data were uncertain. .
Patrick Vallance told a news conference that “there is evidence that there is an increased risk for those who have the new variant.”
He said that for a man in his 60s with the original version of the virus, “the average risk is that about 1,000 people who become infected will unfortunately die.”
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“With the new variant, about 13 or 14 people out of 1000 people who are infected can die,” he said.
But Vallance stressed that “the evidence is not yet strong” and that more research is needed.
In contrast, there is increasing belief that the variant is more transmissible than the original coronavirus strain. He said it seems to be transferred between 30% and 70% more easily.
“I do not think this virus is going anywhere,” he said. “It will probably always exist,” Vallance said.
Herd immunity in Israel
When asked about the report, an Israeli expert said that the British variant would make it much more difficult for the country to achieve herd immunity.
Prof. Gili Regev of the Sheba Medical Center in Tel Aviv, noting that it was ‘much more contagious’, told Channel 12 that Israel now instead of being able to achieve herd immunity after losing between 60 and 75% of the population vaccinated, vaccinated more than 75% and possibly even 90%.
“That means it will take much longer, especially since we are not vaccinating children,” she said.
Prof. Gili Regev-Yochai, director of the infection, prevention and control unit of the Sheba Medical Center at Tel-Hashomer (screenshot on Youtube)
“We are far from the end of this pandemic,” Regev said, noting that Israel had ended the first phase of the fight against COVID-19.
In Israel, nearly 2.5 million people received the first dose of the vaccine by Friday, of which nearly 900,000 also received a second dose.
Regev said her hospital noticed a “significant” decrease in infections and an increase in antibodies in those who received a second dose and expected it to affect virus numbers in the coming weeks.
Deputy Director of the Ministry of Health, Itamar Grotto, told Channel 13 on Friday that health officials fear more virus variants will be allowed from abroad, and recommends reducing international travel.
“Within the country, we have successfully vaccinated and the exclusion is starting to show results,” Grotto said, but due to variants, “our recommendation is to reduce the travel of Israel for a short time as much as possible.”
After more Israelis are vaccinated, the public will be better protected from future outbreaks of virus variants and could ease travel restrictions, he said.
Study the new variant
Maria Van Kerkhove, the World Health Organization’s technical lead on COVID-19, said studies were underway to investigate the transmission and severity of new virus variants.
She has so far said “they have not yet seen an increase in severity”, but that more transmission could lead to an overloaded healthcare system ‘and thus more deaths.
British officials say they are confident that the vaccines granted to use COVID-19 will be effective against the new strain identified in the country.
But Vallance said scientists are concerned that variants identified in Brazil and South Africa may be more resistant to vaccines, adding that more research needs to be done.
Concerns about newly identified variants have caused a spate of new travel restrictions around the world. Many countries closed their borders to travelers from Britain, and the United Kingdom stopped flights from Brazil and South Africa.
A man eats takeaway food on the steps of St. Paul’s Cathedral, in the London Financial District, on Friday 22 January 2021 during England’s third national exclusion since the outbreak of the coronavirus. (AP Photo / Matt Dunham)
Prime Minister Boris Johnson said there could be further restrictions.
“We may have to go further to protect our borders,” he said.
Britain recorded 95,981 deaths among people who tested positive for the coronavirus, the highest confirmed total in Europe.
The UK is currently in a trap in an attempt to delay the latest outbreak of the coronavirus outbreak. Bars, restaurants, hangouts and many shops are closed, and people are expected to stay largely at home.
The number of new infections has begun to decline, but deaths remain alarmingly high, averaging more than 1,000 a day, and the number of patients admitted to hospital is 80% higher than at the first peak of the spring pandemic.
Johnson, who is often accused of making overly optimistic predictions about the relaxation of coronavirus restrictions, sounded gloomy.
“We will have to live with coronavirus somehow for a long time to come,” he said, adding that “it is an open question” when measures can be facilitated.
“At this point, you really have to be very, very careful,” he said.