London Breed, Mayor of San Francisco, said on Friday that the city may soon be able to reopen because coronavirus transmission has declined.
Breed tweeted that San Francisco may soon start to emerge from its state-ordered exclusion because the city’s so-called reproduction rate is at 0.99. A reproductive rate represents how many people an infected person can transmit the virus.
“This means that every person who receives COVID-19 passes it on to less than one other person on average. We are slowing down the distribution, ”said Breed.
“Anything less than 1, we’re doing well,” Dr. Lee Riley, an expert in infectious diseases at UC Berkeley, told the Chronicle last year. ‘But the rate of reduction is definitely related to how far below 1 the reproduction number is. The lower the number, the faster the epidemic will end. ”
San Francisco can only start reopening when the state gives the entire Bay Area the green light. According to California guidelines, a region can reopen when it is expected to reach its capacity for intensive care units within a period of four weeks. The Sacramento region was recently allowed to reopen on the basis of the criteria.
The Bay Area’s ICU availability is currently 6.6%. Infections are falling across the region – the average of seven days for new cases in the nine provinces was 49.8 per 100,000 people on 21 January, compared to 60.9 per 100,000 on 14 January.
San Francisco’s COVID-19 reproduction rate is back below 1, at 0.99!
This means that each person receiving COVID-19 passes it on to less than one other person on average. We are slowing down the distribution.
If this continues, we may soon start reopening under CA guidelines.
– London Breed (@LondonBreed) 22 January 2021
Breed’s tweet comes hours after the city opened its first of three mass vaccination rooms at City College in Ocean Avenue near Interstate 280. Breed’s plan is to eventually administer 10,000 coronavirus vaccines a day, with the goal of vaccinating all residents by June 30, the city is far from achieving those daily goals due to a shortage of vaccines.
At a press conference at City College, officials said San Francisco expects to receive less vaccination for the city’s health network next week than it did last week, when it almost ran out. Grant Colfax, director of public health, said that ‘things are in the right direction for now’.
As of Friday, San Francisco has a 7-day positivity rate of 4.3%. The city’s seven-day average number of new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people dropped from 39.4 on January 14 to January 21. Currently, 234 people are in hospital, up from 259 on January 12th.
Breed added that despite the encouraging signs, San Franciscans need to remain vigilant. ‘But we must all continue to do what we know, slow down the spread of the virus: wear a mask, avoid indoor meetings with people you do not live with, ventilate indoor spaces when you are close to other people, and wash your hands regularly , ”She tweeted. “Let’s go on like this!”
Chronicle author Trisha Thadani contributed to this report.
Jessia Flores is a staff writer for the San Francisco Chronicle. Email: [email protected] tthadani