The coronavirus pandemic may no longer be spreading exponentially in the UK, according to government data suggesting the country’s third exclusion is working.
The results, released on Friday, dropped the official estimate of the “R-rate”, which measures how many people each infected person transmits the virus, to between 0.8 and 1. If R is above 1, the virus spreads exponentially. Last week, the R rate was estimated between 1.2 and 1.3.
The government said business rates remained “dangerously high” and urged the public to abide by the closure rules.
“There’s a small minority who do not, a small minority who break the rules and do not think it matters,” Environment Secretary George Eustice told Times Radio. “We can see that it matters if you look at the pressure on hospitals at the moment.”
Nevertheless, the data will provide welcome news to the government of Boris Johnson, who was forced to put the country in another trap at the beginning of January after a new infectious disease of the disease took hold.
Falling rates
Figures from the Department of Health show that the estimated R rate has fallen in all regions of England since last week. In London, it dropped to between 0.7 and 0.9, indicating that the disease is evident in the capital, where hospitals are still under intense pressure. London Mayor Sadiq Khan on Friday reiterated his call on the government to strengthen regulations.
The estimates for the R are consistent with the findings from other sources. Earlier Friday, statistics suggested that the number of people in England infected with Covid-19 fell slightly in the week to January 16th.
Covid infection rates in England fall for the first time in a month
Johnson’s government wants to start lifting restrictions once it has vaccinated 15 million of the most vulnerable people and their carers. But the prime minister hinted on Thursday that the rapidly spreading variant could mean lock-in measures are needed in the summer.
Be careful
According to papers from the government’s scientific advisory group for emergencies, there is reason for caution even with the R rate of less than 1. According to one document of 6 January, scientists expect the incidence of the virus to decline more slowly than during the first exclusion. last spring, even though R remains below 1 until mid-February.
“It is therefore very likely that the hospital occupancy will be at or above current levels in mid-February,” he said. At the time, according to government data, there were nearly 32,000 coronavirus patients in UK hospitals, a figure that was already about a third higher than the peak in the first wave in April last year.
Officials have repeatedly said they expect the cases to be plateau and to drop in the current exclusion, long before hospitalization and daily deaths improve significantly.
(Updates with comments from Eustice, Khan from fourth paragraph)