This is NFL Championship weekend, which is exciting news because it means we’ll find out who’s going to play in the Super Bowl. It’s a little sad, too, because that means Sunday is the last time we have several NFL games until next season.
It also means we have fewer opportunities left in the season to make money on the games, so let’s not waste it. We can not ask for better matches than the ones we got. In the AFC, the defending champions face one of the league’s hottest teams. The NFC is a battle between two everyday big backs in Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady.
I look forward to looking at it and in the process making money for all of us!
The Packers have only looked bad once this season. Sure, they lost three games, but it was only the 38-10 defeat en route to the same team from Tampa in which the Packers embarrassed themselves. They jumped to an early 10-0 lead after the first quarter, and then death and destruction began. Aaron Rodgers throws a pick, and it starts a 38-point run for Tampa. Rodgers would throw another pick in the game, was fired four times and put numerous times under pressure as the Tampa defense was the best performance of the season.
And that’s what makes me lean towards the Packers in the rematch. I don’t think Tampa can play that well again, and I don’t think Rodgers can play that bad. Plus, as I mentioned, Green Bay took a 10-0 lead in that game before everything fell apart. With the rematch taking place in Lambeau at the end of January, the Packers have the lead. Yes, Tom Brady played an entire career with the Patriots in cold weather, but he played in a team full of players who played in cold weather. He played in teams built for those conditions. I do not think Tampa was built for that.
This is not to say that they will not succeed. I do think the Bucs will be able to run the ball against Green Bay’s defense. Keeping Aaron Rodgers off the field is the best thing the Bucs can do for their defense, and that will likely be the game plan. This should limit the score for both teams. So while I think the Packers are the better team and win this game more often, the smartest thing to do is take the Under. I just do not see a shootout happening.
Projected score: Packers 27, Bucs 23
Best Bet: Under 51.5 (-110)
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Last chance:
Kansas City Chiefs -3
I made this choice with the idea that Patrick Mahomes would play, and he has since announced that he has cleared concussion protocol and will indeed play. And when Mahomes plays, I support Mahomes at home.
Buffalo’s defense has improved as the season goes on and is 12th in the NFL in DVOA against the pass. Yet I can not help but notice that Buffalo’s improvement on defense coincided with a series of games against San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Denver, New England, Miami, Indianapolis and Baltimore. Of the seven opponents, none are in the top half of the NFL, which offends DVOA. Indianapolis, in 16th place, is the seven-time offense with the highest ranking. Kansas City is second, behind Green Bay.
It is much easier to delay transient attacks like these, than to delay those of Kansas City. There’s been a lot made of Kansas City’s fight against the spread lately, and it really is, but I’m not that worried about it. Part of the reason for this is that the Chiefs are the defending champions and that as a result they are often overvalued in the market. I think the speculation of Mahomes injuries offers a better price for that than we have seen without health questions. Plus, Kansas City was well on its way to covering the Browns last week before Mahomes was injured. They were 19-10 in Cleveland’s area when he went down and then had to finish with a field goal. If Mahomes never gets hurt, I think the Chiefs win the game relatively comfortably. And while I do not see them blowing out Buffalo on Sunday, I also do not see them ever being in serious danger.
Projected Score: Chiefs 31, Bills 23
Best Bet: Chiefs -3 (-115)
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Last week |
2-1 |
0.95 |
|
Season |
29-24-4 |
2.7 |