British health experts advise US on combating mutant variant

LONDON – Health experts warn that the US, even with restrictions, is likely to struggle to control the spread of a highly contagious coronavirus variant, underlining the importance of taking immediate aggressive measures to protect as many people as possible.

The variant, which was discovered in the United Kingdom and is known as B.1.1.7., Has an extraordinary number of mutations and is associated with more efficient and faster transmission.

There is no evidence that the mutant strain is associated with more serious diseases. Because it is more transmissible, additional people are likely to become infected, and this can lead to a greater number of serious cases, hospitalizations and deaths.

Scientists first spotted this mutation in September. The variant of concern has since been detected in at least 44 countries, including the US, which has reported its presence in 12 states.

Last week, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned that the modeled pathway of the variant in the U.S. will show rapid growth in early 2021 and become the predominant variant in March. ‘

The forecast comes as the UK struggles to control the impact of its exponential growth.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced lockdown measures in England on 5 January, urging people to ‘stay home’, as most schools, pubs and restaurants have been ordered to close. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have introduced similar measures.

The restrictions, which are expected to remain in England until at least mid-February, have been introduced to try to reduce tensions on the country’s already stressed hospitals, amid a surge in Covid surveys.

Government figures released on Thursday said Britain had recorded 37,892 new infections with 1,299 deaths. A day earlier, the UK had recorded a record high of Covid deaths, when data showed that an additional 1,820 people died within 28 days after a positive Covid test.

Dr. Deepti Gurdasani, clinical epidemiologist at Queen Mary University of London, emphasized that it was clear from the British response that, unless aggressive measures were taken immediately, ‘the variant would spread rapidly geographically, as well as the increase in frequency in places where it’s established in the community. ‘

Gurdasani cited findings from a careful investigation led by researchers at Imperial College London, which showed that there was no evidence of a decline in Covid rates between January 6 and January 15, even though England were in the lock, indicating that it is difficult even with restrictions. to limit it effectively due to higher portability. “

Researchers from the study, which was published on Thursday, warned that UK health services would remain under ‘extreme pressure’ and that the cumulative number of deaths would increase rapidly unless the prevalence of the virus in the community was significantly reduced.

“All this means that the window for inclusion is very short. Given the lower level of active surveillance in the US, the variant may have spread more widely than expected, and the policy to include it should reflect that,” Gurdasani said.

“This means strict efforts to limit not only where the variant has been identified, but in all regions where it could have spread. And active surveillance with contact detection to identify all possible cases, while maintaining strict restrictions to break the shipping chains.”

To date, the UK has recorded the fifth highest number of confirmed Covid infections and related deaths in the world.

On his second day in office, President Joe Biden announced comprehensive measures to tackle the virus, including setting up a Covid Test Board to promote testing, address supply shortages and raise funds for less-affected minority communities to give.

According to Biden, the executive orders showed that: “Help is on the way.” He also warned that it would take months “to stop it.”

“The key to all of this is to reduce interpersonal interactions and the strategy should generally be the same as what went before, which worked elsewhere, and then some,” said Simon Clarke, associate professor of cellular microbiology at the University of Reading. , said.

Clarke said U.S. states should consider reducing the number of people in retail or leisure environments, for example, and that it may be necessary to close bars or limit their opening hours, as studies show the risk of transmission indoors is higher.

“None of these things we do to protect ourselves eliminate the risk, and none of them make us Covid-resistant – all you do is reduce your chances of infection,” Clarke said. .

“The virus has only pushed it back with this evolutionary step and it will now be even harder to achieve the same level of protection.”

“Everyone wants to believe that vaccines are the solution, and they’re going to make a big difference, but that’s not the whole solution,” said Kit Yates, a senior lecturer in mathematical biology at the University of Bath and author of “The Math of life and death. ‘

Yates said the new U.S. government should do everything in its power to deliver Covid vaccines as quickly as possible to ease the pressure on health care institutions, but insists it should be part of a multiple approach.

Some other measures U.S. states should consider, Yates said, include encouraging people to work from home where possible, maintain physical distance, improve ventilation within the school environment, have children wear masks carry, provide financial support to those who isolate themselves and find effective testing protocols.

“These are the boring, awful, non-pharmaceutical measures that no one wants, but the alternative is just too narrow to think about.”