Yoshihide Suga
Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota / Bloomberg
Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota / Bloomberg
An increase in coronavirus cases in Japan has dealt a blow to Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who was once strong public support, increasing the risk that he will be replaced by the ruling party ahead of an election to be held in October.
Suga achieved some of the highest approval ratings for a new prime minister in September when the ruling Liberal Democratic Party appointed him leader. But as poll numbers fall just as sharply as coronavirus cases increase, questions arise as to whether he will possibly join the long list of Japanese prime ministers who will be forced out after a short time.
“It is likely that they will elect a more popular leader in the party leadership election in September,” said Yu Uchiyama, a professor of political science at the University of Tokyo, saying “many LDP lawmakers” are concerned about their prospects. under the Suga banner. “The party leader is the face of the lower house election.”
Support for Suga’s cabinet has fallen by 7 percentage points to 33% from the previous month in a poll published by the Mainichi newspaper on Saturday, compared to 57% of respondents who said they did not support the cabinet. New polls released by Yomiuri and TV Asahi have also declined.
Suga will deliver a policy speech after the opening of the new parliament session at 14:00 on Monday, when he can present plans to add fines to a virus management law. The session gives the prime minister a chance to try to get support for his government before making a decisive decision on whether to proceed with the Tokyo Olympics, an event that begins in July, which he said he was determined to hold despite increasing opposition.
Suga, 72, came to power and promised to maintain the ultra-easy monetary stance and other policies that helped make his predecessor, Shinzo Abe, Japan’s longest-serving prime minister. At the same time, the peasant boy has a greater focus than his longtime boss on pocket book issues such as phone charging. He outlined a dual strategy to bolster the economy while containing the virus.
The continuity promise has contributed to the Nikkei 225 stock average after a an everyday high in dollar value in January, even as the economy fell back from the worst slump on record. But public opinion quickly began to weaken after Suga blocked a group of scholars who criticized Abe’s policies from an academic advisory body and entangled an investigation into the campaign funding of several of the former prime minister’s first aid workers.
At the same time, the government has come under increasing criticism for maintaining its ‘Go-To’ travel campaign to encourage domestic spending, despite concerns that it would help spread the virus. Suga resisted increasing calls from regional leaders to declare a state of emergency, and once again waged a debate that drove Abe’s popularity before resigning due to the return of a chronic illness.
Suga finally announced a state of emergency for the Tokyo region on January 7 after several record-breaking infection announcements, a move that about 80% of respondents said in a survey by public broadcaster NHK was too late. Last week, he added other areas, including the Osaka region, limiting a part of the country that accounts for more than half of the country’s economic production.
The expansion also boosted the likelihood that the third-largest economy in the world would decline in this quarter. Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said on Thursday that the current area could be further expanded, depending on infections.
The Nishiki Market in Kyoto, January 14th. The government has been increasingly criticized for maintaining its ‘Go-To’ travel campaign despite concerns about the virus spreading.
Photographer: Kosuke Okahara / Bloomberg
“There was no crisis management strategy under the Abe administration,” said Tomoaki Iwai, a professor at Nihon University in Tokyo. “He stuck to the line and paid too much attention to the economy and other factors.”
To make matters worse, mass vaccinations are expected to begin in Japan in February. And media coverage shows a growing consensus that the Tokyo Olympics, which had already pushed back a year to July 2021 due to the pandemic, should be delayed again or canceled altogether – something Suga promised not to too late.
The prime minister does not have much time to turn things around. Japanese law requires an election by October in October. Suga is serving the last year of Abe’s three-year term and will need the support of the LDP to stay on until September.
Suga’s party has been in power for all but about four years for the past 65 years, thanks in part to an often disorganized opposition. A the merger of the two largest opposition groups last year did not provide enough support to pose a serious threat, although the ruling coalition could face a diminished majority.
Former Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, one of two LDP opponents who defeated Suga to secure the party’s leadership position, told BS Asahi on Sunday that he plans to run for office again this year. Other possible candidates to replace Suga as LDP leader include Nishimura, general secretary Katsunobu Kato and Taro Kono, minister of administrative reform.
Yet such current cabinet members could also be blamed for the government’s failure, Iwai said. It may even prompt the LDP to go to an old stalwart: Abe.
“Because there is no one else, people can start talking about Abe,” Iwai said. “It’s sad.”
– With the help of Andrew Davis, Erica Yokoyama and Lily Nonomiya
(Updates with new polls in fourth paragraph.)