ComebackTown is published by David Sher for a prosperous greater Birmingham & Alabama
Click here to sign up for the newsletter. (Sign out at any time)
Today’s guest columnist is Frank McPhillips.
When a deadly pandemic collides with exponential growth, the result is frightening. We’ve reached the point in Alabama, and we need to speed up the distribution of vaccines.
During October, about 30,000 Alabamans contracted COVID-19. By November, the number had risen to 42,500 in one month. In December, the number of cases more than doubled to 111,000. And the cases in January are rising even faster than in December.
At the time of writing (January 12), more than 400,000 Alabamians have contracted the virus since the first official case on March 12, and the death toll stands at 5,347. It is not easy to grasp the scale of 400,000 cases. . It is virtually equal to every man, woman and child living in Mobile County, our second most populous country. No other state with our population has seen nearly as many cases.
More cases inevitably lead to more hospitalizations, and more hospitalizations lead to more deaths, especially when all the ICUs are full. On Jan. 11, Alabama recorded 3,088 hospitalizations, the highest level ever, and twice the number of patients in Alabama hospitals in July, when the state previously had the worst outbreak.
Intensive care units in Alabama now have an average of 94% occupancy, according to official figures released by the Department of Health and Human Services. In Birmingham, the ICU occupancy rates in Medical West, Brookwood, UAB Hospital and St. Vincent’s already 94% or higher, while the hospitals in Mobile, Huntsville and Montgomery achieve 96%.
Meanwhile, amid huge fanfare, Alabama received the first shipment of the Pfizer vaccine on December 15, the day we exceeded the 300,000 threshold. In the interim 28 days, the state saw 108,000 new infections, but only 87,000 vaccinations, according to the state health department’s vaccine panel.
Clearly, the state’s vaccine distribution program so far has been appalling. We administered 1,775 doses per 100,000 population, the lowest per capita rate in the country. Western Virginia administered 3.5 times the doses of Alabama on a per capita basis. After four weeks, it should be unacceptable that only 1.7% of Alabama’s population is vaccinated. At this rate, it will take more than three years to reach herd immunity.
Why does the vaccine go out so slowly? One of the reasons may be a strict adherence to the CDC-recommended low distribution plan. In the first level, 300,000 medical staff are on the front line and nursing home residents, followed by elderly people over 75 and specific essential workers, then elderly people aged 65-74 and additional essential workers, and finally the general population.
The tiger system may be more equitable, but what happens when 90 out of 200 high-risk medical staff, such as at Clay County Hospital, choose not to take the vaccine (despite being hospitalized with COVID patients, oxygen which are few, and beds are added to the ICU)? How long do we have to wait for those in the first level before moving on to the next level, and so on?
To speed things up, the health department announced last week that the state will open vaccinations for 75-year-olds and older, while continuing to qualify for first-level recipients. The health department introduced it within hours of setting up a live hotline for appointments because 1.1 million calls flooded. Hospitals across the state are overwhelmed with calls from residents desperate to receive the vaccine.
There are about 300,000 health workers in the state and 350,000 people 75 years and older qualify for the vaccine. At the current vaccination rate, an essential worker (such as a teacher) or a 65-74 year old with pre-existing conditions will not be eligible for vaccination in early September. Just this morning, the secretary of HHS, Alex Azar, reversed his earlier recommendation and urged the countries to open vaccinations for the elderly aged 65 and older.
A second reason for the slow rollout is that officials withheld enough doses to give a second shot to those who received the first dose. This policy may also change as Secretary Azar, under pressure from the incoming Biden administration, urged the states to release all doses currently sitting in warehouses due to the growing confidence that second doses can be provided by continued production. It also helps that new vaccines (Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca) are on hand.
Alabama is not the only state facing distribution problems, but it is one of the worst. According to the information released by the CDC, our state is last death in the country in terms of the percentage of vaccines received by the state and injected into people’s arms (only 23.4%). The state health department, whose dashboard was updated last night to show a 32% distribution rate, will be eligible with the ranking, but even ADPH admits Alabama is in the bottom quartile.
People are rightly angry because our public officials are so ill-equipped to deliver the vaccines after having months to prepare. I do not pretend to have all the answers, but let us be clear: there are only two ways to immunize the population – through infection or vaccination. Out of thousands of other Alabamians, tens of thousands of Alabamians are likely to admit an average of 1 death for every 75 cases in our state (400,000 cases and 5,334 deaths), unless the state recognizes the urgency and raises it dramatically.
Frank McPhillips is a newly retired lawyer, devoted husband to Louise and father of three grown sons. Frank graduated with honors from Harvard College and the University of Virginia Law School, and has practiced law for more than 35 years at Maynard, Cooper & Gale. He currently serves on the boards of numerous nonprofit organizations, including Advent Episcopal School, Impact America, and the National Multiple Sclerosis Society. To receive Frank’s free daily Alabama COVID newsletter, sign up at frankmcphillips.substack.com.
Click here to sign up for our newsletter. (Sign out at any time)
David Sher is the founder and publisher of ComebackTown. He has previously chaired the Birmingham Regional Chamber of Commerce (BBA), Operation New Birmingham (REV Birmingham) and the City Action Partnership (CAP).