The candidate for Joe Biden has already cost at least one friend. Back in the Obama era, Biden spent tens of hours with Chinese President Xi Jinping. On one occasion, they ate noodles with Biden’s granddaughter at a restaurant in Beijing, and Xi once called Biden an ‘old friend’. As early as May 2019, Biden insisted that China’s communist leaders ‘are not bad people’.
But many can change within a few years. In an attempt to show his toughness towards China, Biden Xi began to be described as a thug who in fact made a million rentals. . . concentration camps. As president, Biden says he will bring together a “united front of friends and partners to challenge China’s abusive behavior.”
But in reality, is the president-elect still too soft for Beijing to confront Xi? Can he prove critics wrong?
There is no shortage of potential ‘friends and partners’. China’s neighbors, such as Taiwan, Japan and India, are concerned about Beijing’s growing military assertiveness. And in countries like Myanmar, where China is building roads, pipelines and power stations, there has been popular setbacks against what locals see as a violation of national sovereignty.
China’s diplomacy also raises hackles. Take Australia, where Beijing has poured money to influence the country’s elite, via everything from trade deals to brainstorming. Over the past few years, moods have suddenly changed: Australia has tightened security rules for foreign investment and increased spending on defense in the Indian Pacific.
When the Aussie government launched an international inquiry into the origins of the novel coronavirus, the Chinese Foreign Ministry described it as ‘shocking’, as Australia was ‘supposed to be a good friend’.
Britain has seen a similar rapid transformation. Five years ago, London was Europe’s biggest supporter of talks with Beijing. But last year, the government of Boris Johnson placed new barriers to Chinese investment, citing security issues.
Meanwhile, Xi managed to stifle criticism – until October last year, when 39 countries joined a statement against Beijing’s rights violations. China’s record has always been appalling, but in recent years it has become unpleasant: you can not forget photos of millions of Hong Kong citizens protesting – followed by the mass arrests of opposition figures. Nor the unspeakable footage of Uighur Muslims being loaded onto trains with blindfolds and handcuffs.
And that’s for COVID 19 coverage. Even in relatively China-friendly regions, such as Latin America, there was public anger at Xi’s party for its role in the pandemic. A Pew poll found that ‘unfavorable opinion’ about China ‘has’ risen’ over the past year, from Canada to the Netherlands to South Korea.
In theory, therefore, Biden should be able to build its ‘united front’. In practice, this will be more difficult. Last month, the European Union ignored warnings from US officials, including a senior Biden adviser, and signed a trade agreement with China. (Xi cheerfully described it as an agreement between ‘the world’s two leading powers’.) EU leaders may see China as a dangerous competitor, but in the end they need the business opportunities, even if it means alienating Washington must be and mothers about Xi’s atrocities.
As for China’s trade practices, Biden may find that its ‘friends and partners’ are evaporating. He will likely achieve more success by simply applying Trump’s ‘phase one’ trade deal. Retiring Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer argues that America is in a strong position to ‘keep’ [China’s] feet to the fire ”on his promises of fair practices and buying commitments.
Biden’s’ united front ‘will be better achieved in the area of security, where he is expected to form alliances such as’ the Quad’, an informal partnership with India, Japan and Australia and the intelligence network ‘Five Eyes’ to soften in silence. .
But it is on the basis of human rights that there is, of course, an opening for international cooperation. China has pledged to respect Hong Kong’s autonomy. Praying can lead to pressure to keep this promise – perhaps through coordinated international sanctions against Chinese officials.
He could also press Congress to pass legislation against the supply chains linked to the Uighur internment camps. And since Beijing will veto any attempt by international courts to investigate the camps, Biden can empower U.S. courts to rule.
That would be a drastic step. But if the president-elect really believes what he’s saying – that his former friend is overseeing a ‘genocide’, it’s hard to see how he can do anything less.
Dan Hitchens writes from London. Twitter: @DDHitchens