Ontario announced an emergency after the most populous province of Canada was put on track to have more than 20,000 new Covid-19 cases a day by mid-February – an almost tenfold increase from the current score.
Ontario, which is battling a coronavirus outbreak that has overrun its hospitals and caused a province shutdown, could, according to modeling experts advising the government.
New restrictions coming into effect on January 14 require residents to stay at home except for essential activities, while outdoor gatherings will be limited to five people and non-essential construction work will be restricted.
‘I know that the home order is a drastic measure that we do not take lightly. “Everyone needs to stay home to stay alive,” Ontario Premier Doug Ford told a news conference. “Application and inspections will increase.”
Canada began targeted vaccinations in December, with current efforts targeting health workers and residents of long-term care homes.
The federal government has ordered an additional dose of the 20 million coronavirus vaccine from Pfizer Inc and BioNTech, Justin Trudeau told reporters on Tuesday. This will take the total number of doses delivered in Canada this year to 80 million.
Ontario, the country’s economic engine, has been under lockout since Dec. 26, with non-essential businesses closed and schools closed for personal learning.
Yet the daily number of Covid-19 cases has risen above 3,500 on average over the past seven days, government data showed. Ontario reported 2,903 new cases on Tuesday.
In the worst case scenario, with 7% growth, there would be 40,000 new cases daily by mid-February, while the best case scenario, with 1% growth, would bring 5,000 new cases every day, Ontario data showed. The data show that the case recently on the worst days was more than 7%.
In five of the worst-hit areas in Ontario – including the Toronto area, near Hamilton and Windsor-Essex, across the Detroit border – schools will remain closed until at least February 10. Childcare for children who are too young for school will remain open, along with emergency care for some children of school-going age.
“We will have to confront choices that no doctor will ever make and no family will ever want to hear,” Dr Steini Brown, head of Ontario’s case modeling, said during a briefing on Tuesday. “People will die from the virus itself and from the overloaded health system that is unable to respond to their needs.”
Brown warned that the new Covid-19 variant from Britain is already in Ontario and that the doubling time of cases – or how long it takes before the number of cases doubles, currently 30 to 40 days – could be reduced to 10 days.
Last week, the worst-affected province of Quebec, Canada, became the first in the country to introduce a curfew to curb the spread.