Four of the most popular programs in college football – Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Notre Dame – still hope to win the championship in one of the most chaotic, uncertain week-to-week seasons in the history of the sport.
On Friday, the College Football Playoff will hold its semifinals in the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans and the Rose Bowl in Arlington, Texas. (You read that right; the Rose Bowl was moved from California due to coronavirus and public health restrictions.) The winners advance to the championship game, which takes place on January 11 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. .
The Rose Bowl
No. 1 Alabama (11-0) vs. No. 4 Notre Dame (10-1)
16:00 Eastern Time in Arlington, Texas (moved from Pasadena, California)
Alabama
The most powerful dynasty in modern university football wants another crown. But the 14th team of coach Nick Saban’s tenure makes offense seem easy, and in that way it differs markedly from some of his predecessors.
Players to watch: Three of Alabama’s attacking stars – fullback Mac Jones, runway Najee Harris and wide Devonta Smith – finish in the top five for this season’s Heisman Trophy. (The winner will be announced on Tuesday.) But do not forget Patrick Surtain II, a junior cornerback who has allowed 25 yards in eight of 11 games this season.
Something Alabama loves: Alabama scores nearly 50 points per game. When Saban won his first championship in Alabama in 2009, at the same time as Alabama’s starting back earned the Heisman Trophy, the Tide scored about 32.
Something that Alabama detests: Alabama has lost seven gimmicks in this shortened season, which was almost double its toll from the previous season.
Alabama’s warning light: Alabama’s nail-biting victory this season was 6 points, in a win over Florida, and Notre Dame’s defense is better, allowing less than 19 points per game. Saban said this week that the fighting Irish will be a challenge to our transgression to deal with. Alabama fans must be nervous when they see Will Reichard repeatedly try to field goal. (He has been excellent so far – 12 for 12 – but has not had as many chances. Jonathan Doerer of Notre Dame has tried 22 this season.)
Followed by the pandemic: Aside from announcing Saban’s November battle with the virus and an earlier false positive response to the coach, Alabama said little about the range of the pathogen in his football program. But Alabama has not rescheduled any games due to its own virus issues.
Extra point: Saban is looking for his sixth national championship as Crimson Tide coach, a point that will equal Bear Bryant’s record in Alabama.
Notre Dame
Notre Dame’s lone play-off, a 2018 semi-final against Clemson, was a debacle: a 30-3 loss. A game against Alabama is one of the best opportunities for glorious glory, even if the fighting Irish act as underdogs.
Players to watch: Ian Book, the quarterback, “let them type a little,” Alabama’s defense coordinator said this week, but he also highlighted Kyren Williams, a second full-back, who ran 1,061 yards this season. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, a 215-pound linebacker, and Kyle Hamilton, a second-rate safety guard, each had 56 tackles, equal to the team’s lead.
Something Notre Dame loves: Book has yielded just two interceptions this season. In the previous ten seasons that Brian Kelly coached the Fighting Irish, the quarterback corps of Notre Dame averaged about a dozen interceptions per year.
Something the Notre Dame detests: History, or at least talk a lot about it. Aside from a regular win over Clemson in November of the season, Notre Dame struggled in party games. There was the 2018 semifinals, but also a 16-point loss to the state of Ohio to end the 2015 season and the 28-point loss to Alabama in the title game for the 2012 Bowl Championship Series.
Notre Dame’s warning light: Book was sacked six times a season high in Notre Dame’s loss to Clemson in the Atlantic Coast Conference. Nearly two-thirds of Alabama’s 32 pockets have come in the last four games. Early penetration from Alabama could be a sad day ahead for the Fighting Irish, but look to Notre Dame to try to improve in a running game that won just 44 yards in the ACC game.
Followed by the pandemic: A match against Wake Forest in September has been postponed because Notre Dame has had a boom in business around its football team. The match was later canceled, according to the ACC, “to maintain the integrity of the league championship.
Extra point: Usually an independent player in football, Notre Dame played for the ACC for the 2020 season and becomes the first team to appear in the play-offs after losing a league championship.
The sugar bowl
No. 2 Clemson (10-1) vs. No. 3 Ohio State (6-0)
20:00 Eastern in New Orleans
Clemson
Clemson and coach Dabo Swinney are back in the playoffs for the sixth consecutive season, while Clemson and Coach Dabo Swinney have been defeated in the playoffs and an enemy they have defeated in two previous playoffs. games. Last season, Clemson outscored the Buckeyes 29-23.
Players to watch: As with Clemson these days, quarterback Trevor Lawrence is the hallmark star: a Heisman Trophy finalist, the projected first-round pick in the NFL draft and a figure like few others in Clemson history. But Lawrence is rapidly spreading the credit, and his offense is being reinforced by Travis Etienne, who is back, setting a Football Bowl subdivision record for most games with a Test (42) while playing against Boston in October College played. He is the only back player in the university game with more than 500 meters.
Something Clemson likes: Both sides of the ball. Under Swinney, who has played a wide range in Alabama, Clemson scores nearly 45 points per game this season, the third best in the sport. And the defense likes to swarm, averaging four bags per game – a possible recipe for misery for Justin Fields, the Ohio State signalman who went down three times in the Big Ten championship game against Northwestern.
Something Clemson hates: Third-off conversions. The Tigers’ percentage is the worst off the field after Clemson scored on 78 of 167 attempts.
Clemson’s warning light: Ohio State pass defense was the worst in the Big Ten. If Lawrence, who did not play in November’s double overtime loss to Notre Dame because he tested positive for the virus, could not succeed in defending it, Clemson is almost certainly in jeopardy.
Navigating through the pandemic: Clemson announced on Wednesday that his offensive coordinator, Tony Elliott, will not participate in the semifinals due to protocols related to the virus, and the university said at least 222 people connected to his athletics department, including Lawrence, tested positive for the virus since June. The school did not release a sports-to-sports breakdown, but Swinney was furious when a game against Florida State was canceled due to problems in the Seminoles program.
Extra point: Let the slap speak. Swinney ranked Ohio No. 11 in the game and did not deviate, declaring this week that he would not place any team in his top 10 if it did not play at least nine games. “I’ll probably be able to run for governor of Michigan and have a good chance,” he said. But he also conceded that the state of Ohio had just as good a chance as one of the four teams on the title.
Ohio State
In the fourth playoff game, Ohio State, who last won the college soccer title in the 2014 season, hopes to make time and lose quickly against the pandemic.
Players to watch: The fullback Justin Fields wants to choose his place as a top draft, after having so few chances this season to show his strengths. His completion percentage is on top of Lawrence’s, but he only threw 15 attacks and rushed for another five. Wyatt Davis, a 315-pound inline man, will be crucial in creating a running game, and even with a shortened season, cornerback Shaun Wade has intercepted nearly half of his careers. Chris Olave, a wide receiver who missed the Big Ten title game, is expected to be back.
Something the state of Ohio loves: Time of possession, which should come in handy when trying to limit Clemson’s score. Ohio State usually controls the ball more than 33 minutes per game.
Something that disgusts the state of Ohio: The pass defense is a striking issue, but it’s just one element of a defense that eroded from last season, when it was the best in the Big Ten. In 2019, when the defense was loaded with players like Chase Young and Jeff Okudah, the second and third pick in the 2020 NFL draft, the state of Ohio surrendered just 248 yards per game. This year? 358.
Ohio’s warning light: The Buckeyes squeaked in the Big Ten Championship game, which they only achieved because the league changed an important rule for fitness. They took control when they found a stormy attack that was 305 yards from the second half. It is unlikely that they will have so much of a time luxury this time. Coach Ryan Day said he would seek a balance between passing and running, but he said: “When you do not start calling it aggressive, then bad things happen.”
Navigating through the pandemic: The Buckeyes have canceled a game in Illinois due to issues within their program, and games against Maryland and Michigan have also been canceled due to the pandemic.
Extra point: In his second season above Ohio State, Day is unbeaten – except for the result against Clemson, who lost last season. Woody Hayes was 10-6-2 in his first two seasons at Columbus, while Urban Meyer was 24-2. Jim Tressel won a national championship to end his second season, when the state of Ohio was 14-0 ahead.