In Wuhan, nearly half a million people had Covid-19, according to a study. This is almost ten times the official figure

In Wuhan, nearly half a million people had Covid-19, according to a study. This is almost ten times the official figure

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The study uses a sample of 34,000 people in the general population in Wuhan – the original epicenter of the pandemic – and other cities in Hubei Province, as well as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong, Jiangsu, Sichuan and Liaoning provinces to estimate Covid -19 infection rates.

The researchers found a prevalence of antibodies of 4.43% for Covid-19 among residents in Wuhan, a metropolis of 11 million people. According to Sunday, Wuhan reported a total of 50,354 confirmed cases of Covid-19, according to the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission.

The study aimed to estimate the scale of past infections in a population by testing blood serum samples from a group of people on coronavirus antibodies. Its findings are not the final statistic of how many people in a particular area have been exposed to the virus.

The Chinese CDC said the study was conducted a month after China “contained the first wave of the Covid-19 epidemic”. The study shows that the incidence outside Wuhan is significantly lower. In other cities in Hubei, only 0.44% of the inhabitants surveyed were found to have coronavirus antibodies.

Outside the province, antibodies were observed in only two people among the more than 12,000 inhabitants.

The results of the study were announced on social media in a Chinese CDC report on Monday. It did not mention whether the study was published in academic journals.

Underreported coronavirus infections

Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the study points to a problem of under-reporting of infections during the peak of the outbreak in Wuhan, partly due to the chaos at the time and the failure to asymptomatic in to close. cases in the official count of confirmed cases.

In January and February, patients with fever flooded Wuhan’s hospitals, which did not have the manpower, test kits and medical resources to diagnose and treat them. Instead, many were told to go home and isolate themselves – some eventually infecting other family members, while others died at home without being recorded in the Covid-19 death toll.

Under-reporting is a problem facing health authorities in many countries, often due to a lack of capacity and resources. Antibody studies conducted by researchers in other parts of the world also show that the coronavirus is much more prevalent than official figures suggest.

A study sponsored by the New York Department of Health, for example, found that by the end of March, one in seven adults in New York had Covid-19 – about ten times the official bill. In August, another study found coronavirus antibodies in more than 27% of New York’s 1.5 million residents tested.
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But in China, there is also the issue of transparency, as officials have given the public more optimistic data than they have had internal access to.

Since February 12, health authorities in Hubei have begun to include ‘clinically diagnosed cases’ in the number of confirmed infections. On the day, about 13,000 “clinically diagnosed cases” that were previously unknown in the province were added to newly confirmed infections, resulting in an increase in daily cases from nine times the previous day.
Leaked documents from the Hubei Provincial Disease Control and Prevention Center previously submitted to CNN by a whistleblower showed the day before that the authorities reported “clinically diagnosed cases” internally, but did not disclose them to the public. . The Hubei authorities also publicly reported a lower number of confirmed cases and deaths on February 10 and March 7 than they recorded internally, the documents showed.
Authorities have also slammed civilian journalists for reporting on the harsh reality of overcrowded hospitals in Wuhan. On Monday, Zhang Zhan, a former lawyer who documented the outbreak in Wuhan at its height, was sentenced to four years in prison for ‘quarreling and causing trouble’. Two other independent journalists – Li Zehua and Fang Bin – were also detained after covering the outbreak.

Effective inclusion in Wuhan

The study highlights a stark contrast between the presence of coronavirus antibodies inside and outside Wuhan.

Huang said the significantly lower rates in other Chinese cities indicate that the Chinese curtailment was quick and effective, especially compared to cities like New York.

In an unprecedented effort to curb the rapidly spreading virus, Wuhan was shut off from the outside world on January 23, with all flights, trains and buses canceled and highway entrances blocked.

Within the city, the government instituted a draconian lockdown. For more than two months, public transport in Wuhan has been suspended, businesses closed and millions of residents confined to their homes and residential communities – not even allowed to go shopping outside.
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However, the closure of 76 days cost residents a lot of money, especially those who had to go to the hospital because all public transport was suspended and there were not enough taxis available for patients.

Nevertheless, the Chinese government was announced by the comprehensive measures that it had allowed the country to take a turn in its fight against the outbreak.

The Chinese CDC, meanwhile, also stressed China’s victory in fighting the virus during the announcement of the results of the antibody study.

“The results of the study show that the population in our country has a low infection rate. This indicates that China has managed to control the epidemic with Wuhan as its main battlefield, and has effectively controlled the large-scale spread of the epidemic,” he said. the agency said. .

CNN’s Nick Paton Walsh contributed to this story.

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